Hershman Group at RealestateloanS.com

Origination Pro Update

January 17, 2012

⇒ Focus Upon Europe
⇒The New Director Speaks
⇒Foreclosures to Rentals
⇒Status of FHA
⇒Increase Your Referrals With The Great Application System

Focus Upon Europe

In all of our assessments regarding the future of our economy, there is always a warning attached which goes something like this -- unless the European debt crisis explodes. We had some good news regarding the economy in the past several weeks, especially with regard to the all-important employment sector. Last week there were not as many economic releases to focus upon. This enabled the markets to refocus upon events in Europe and it is reassuring that, at least for the moment, the crisis does not seem to be boiling over. The news from Europe seems to be positive one day and negative the next. What we need is our economic recovery to be as strong as possible right now to help lift Europe out of its malaise but also withstand weakness coming from Europe.

Corporate earnings reports also started flowing this week. Many have made a big deal about the fact that corporate earnings experienced double digit growth in the past few years but this did not result in the significant hiring of new workers. Well, now workers are being hired and the pace of earnings growth is expected to slow this year. What we can't have is corporate earnings slowing too much so that the momentum of a stronger labor market is halted. Expect there to be a significant focus on results reported during each earnings season this year. Meanwhile, though oil prices closed the week lower, the stronger economic news has coincided with a general rise in the price of oil. Much of this movement has been disguised because seasonal factors have kept gasoline prices low. Eventually gas prices will start rising if oil continues to settle northward of $100 per barrel. This would be one of the costs of a "better news" economy.

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Fixed rate loans dropped again to record lows in the past week. Freddie Mac announced that for the week ending January 12, 30-year fixed rates averaged 3.89%, down from 3.91% the previous week. The average for 15-year loans fell to 3.16%. Adjustable rates were also lower, with the average for one-year adjustables decreasing to 2.76% and five-year adjustables falling to 2.82%. A year ago 30-year fixed rates were at 4.71%, almost a full percent higher from this week. Attributed to Frank Nothaft, Vice President and Chief Economist, Freddie Mac, "Rates on home loans eased slightly this week to all-time record lows following mixed indicators in the labor market. Although the economy added 1.6 million jobs in 2011, which was the most since 2006, the unemployment rate remained historically elevated. The 2009 to 2011 period had the highest three-year average unemployment rate since 1939 to 1941. Moreover, the Federal Reserve indicated in its January 11th regional economic review that most industries saw limited permanent hiring at the end of last year." Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.
Current Indices For Adjustable Rate Mortgages
Updated January 13, 2012

Index
January 12
December
6-month Treasury Security
0.06%
0.05%
1-year Treasury Security
0.11%
0.12%
3-year Treasury Security
0.35%
0.39%
5-year Treasury Security
0.84%
0.89%
10-year Treasury Security
1.94%
1.98%
12-month LIBOR
 
1.099% (Dec)
12-month MTA
 
0.182% (Dec)
11th District Cost of Funds
 
1.201% (Nov)
Prime Rate
 
3.250%
 
I don't understand why underwriting standards are so strict right now. Wouldn't it help our recovery if it were easier to qualify? Mike from Virginia

To answer this question I brought in industry and secondary marketing expert Eric Holloman, CEO of RateLink. If you are interested in seeing more of what RateLink can provide for your business, you can get a free trial at www.ratelink.com. The final part is written by Dave Hershman as a follow-up to Eric's commentary...

Part Three: Eric gave the history of the crisis and what caused the tightening of standards. So now the important question is--what will cause standards to loosen in the future? Two points here. First, standards will get looser. Second, they will not go back anywhere near where they were in the subprime days. Right now lenders are over-reacting for good reason to the fact that they are being asked to buy back so many loans. The fears of repurchases have made underwriting even stricter than they should be as a result of the instability of home loans as an investment. So two factors must happen and they are likely to happen pretty much simultaneously. The real estate market must get better so that new loans are safe. We have already come a long ways towards making this happen. Also, the "legacy problem loans" must be disposed of by the banks and conforming agencies. Of course, a better market will do that as well. When these problems get back to more normal levels, banks will start "competing" for business again because they will not have enough loans on their books. Of course, they will be competing in a new regulatory world in which there are restrictions placed upon risky lending. We are not talking about risky lending, but common sense underwriting applied to good loans. And yes, coming back to your question--it would help the recovery if it were easier to qualify. It would move us to what is called a "virtuous cycle," rather than a vicious cycle."  Dave

 Ask The Expert is a feature of OriginationPro Update. If you would like to submit a question, you can email Dave at success@hershmangroup.com.

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Breaking News:  Richard Cordray said that the new federal consumer protection agency he heads will aim to make "sure that financial institutions are playing by the rules," warning the industry that "there are real consequences" for violating the law. In a speech to the Brookings Institution just one day after President Barack Obama used a recess appointment to name Cordray director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the former Ohio attorney general said he has "examiners on the ground today with broad authority" to inspect loan documents and ask "tough question" of financial institutions. "The consumer bureau will make clear that there are real consequences to breaking the law," Cordray said. "We have given informants and whistleblowers direct access to us. We took over a number of investigations from other agencies in July and we are pursuing some investigations jointly with them." By outlining such a tough approach, Cordray is likely to win support from consumers across the country. But his speech could send a shiver through the nation's financial industry, which has looked with dread upon the new bureau with its broad regulatory authority. Congress created the bureau when it approved a sweeping overhaul in 2010 of the nation's banking regulations. The new bureau will regulate a wide array of consumer financial products, such as home loans and credit-card offers while encouraging financial institutions to write easy-to-understand terms. Source: Mortgage Daily

Federal officials hope to launch a pilot program in early 2012 to convert government-owned foreclosures into rental properties. The program, which was cited by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke as one way to address the housing crisis, would sell foreclosed homes now owned by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac ) to investors in bulk. The properties would then be converted into rentals. The initiative began back in August, when the Federal Housing Finance Agency, the Treasury Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development announced they were seeking suggestions on ways to dispose of repossessed homes now owned by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Housing Administration. In addition to getting the properties off the government's books, officials are hoping putting the homes back into productive use will stabilize neighborhoods and housing values. Also, it is looking to expand the supply of rentals, which are increasingly in demand. The agency is not releasing details on how the rental program would work, instead saying it is "proceeding prudently but with a sense of urgency to lay the groundwork for the development of good initial transactions in early 2012." Administration officials said they are continuing to work with the agency to develop the program. Source: CNN/Money

The delinquency rate for home equity lines of credit rose just 2 basis points in the third quarter to 1.93 percent, reports the American Bankers Association. Late HELOC payments of 30 days or more have been trending up for three quarters and now are 19 basis points higher than in the 2010 third quarter; but delinquencies on closed-end second mortgages declined 26 basis points in the third quarter to 4.12 percent. As of Sept. 30, the value of HELOCs held by banks and thrifts was $608.3 billion -- down 6 percent from last year, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Source: American Banker

Freddie Mac eliminated the minimum credit score requirement for borrowers seeking a home loan refinance from their existing servicer, as long as they have at least 20% equity in their home, according to guidance released recently. The change goes into effect for any refinances with a settlement date on or after Jan. 5. Previously, Freddie required at least a 620 credit score before allowing such a high-equity refinance to take place. In October, the Federal Housing Finance Agency instructed Fannie Mae and Freddie to remove barriers to allow more borrowers to take advantage of historically low interest rates through the Home Affordable Refinance Program. Source: HousingWire

Housing experts warn that the Federal Housing Administration is quickly depleting its cash reserves due to a spike in delinquencies on FHA-insured loans, and the agency may soon be calling on taxpayers for help, CNNMoney reports. The percentage of FHA loans with three or more missed payments increased 9.3 percent in November. FHA’s reserve funds depleted to 0.24 percent in 2011, which is below the 2 percent level it’s mandated to maintain by Congress. The FHA insures lenders against defaults; it does not issue home loans. "It's highly likely that the FHA will need a taxpayer bailout over the next three to five years," real estate professor Joseph Gyourko, author of a report entitled "Is FHA the Next Big Housing Bailout?," told CNNMoney. In December, Shaun Donovan, the Secretary of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, testified to the House Financial Services Committee that the FHA’s financial problems were mostly centered on loans issued prior to 2009 and that more recent loans were having a sharp decline in defaults. Donovan told the committee that the FHA should be able to return the reserve fund back up to the required 2 percent level by 2014. Source: CNN/Money


Origination Pro Update

January 3, 2012

⇒ Predictions For 2012
⇒ FHA Assessment--Further Tightening Coming?
⇒ Flood Insurance Extended
⇒ Brokers Gain Market Share
⇒ Fraud Index Rises
⇒ Business Planning 2012 Tomorrow

Predictions For 2012

The New Year is here. Of course, now we are inundated with predictions regarding what will happen in the coming year. If you read 100 predictions, you would get 100 different scenarios. For example, in October Fannie Mae predicted that rates on home loans would fall in the first half of next year, while Freddie Mac forecasted an increase in rates. In addition, Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan rated the chance of a recession at 40% next year while Freddie Mac predicts that economic growth will likely strengthen to about 2.5% in 2012. More recently, a survey of 20 top economists conducted by CNN/Money predicted the risk of a recession next year at only 20% next year. This survey expected the fourth quarter growth rate to be the strongest of the year with over a 3.0% growth rate, but grow to slow to an annual rate of 2.4% next year.

Slow growth next year but no new recession? Sounds like a replay of this year. Our advice? Don't get lost in predictions. Most of the time they are a reflection of what already has happened. Right now we have very positive trends with increased consumer confidence confirmed by the Conference Board's survey released last week. The two month increase was the largest such bounce since March of 1991 and brought the level of confidence to where it was this spring. The real question is, will these trends continue into next year or do we fall back into our "starts and stops" pattern of economic recovery? If you want a clue to that question, watch the employment trends. A stronger, permanent recovery only comes with an improving employment sector and the reading on employment this Friday will be an important indication in this regard.

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Fixed rate loans ended the year near record lows. Freddie Mac announced that for the week ending December 29, 30-year fixed rates averaged 3.95%, up from 3.91% the previous week. The average for 15-year loans rose slightly to 3.24%. Adjustable rates were also up slightly, with the average for one-year adjustables increasing one tick to 2.78% and five-year adjustables increasing slightly to 2.88%. A year ago 30-year fixed rates were at 4.86%, almost a full percent higher from this week. Attributed to Frank Nothaft, Vice President and Chief Economist, Freddie Mac, "Rates on home loans ended the year hovering near historic lows in an already affordable housing market. For instance, the seasonally-adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller® 20-City Composite home price index in October was the lowest seen since March 2003. It's not surprising then that over 5 percent of households in December plan to purchase a home over the next six months, the highest share since May, according to The Conference Board." Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.
Current Indices For Adjustable Rate Mortgages
Updated December 30, 2011

Index
December 29
November
6-month Treasury Security
0.07%
0.05%
1-year Treasury Security
0.12%
0.11%
3-year Treasury Security
0.41%
0.39%
5-year Treasury Security
0.88%
0.91%
10-year Treasury Security
1.91%
2.01%
12-month LIBOR
 
0.993% (Nov)
12-month MTA
 
0.196% (Nov)
11th District Cost of Funds
 
1.218% (Oct)
Prime Rate
 
3.250%
 

I don't understand why underwriting standards are so strict right now. Wouldn't it help our recovery if it were easier to qualify? Mike from Virginia

To answer this question I brought in industry and secondary marketing expert Eric Holloman, CEO of RateLink. If you are interested in seeing more of what RateLink can provide for your business, you can get a free trial at www.ratelink.com.  Dave

Part One: In years past a borrower would visit their local savings and loan to obtain a home loan. The Loan Officer at the bank would approve the loan and fund it with cash reserves from the vault. This system worked well until the bank ran out of money to lend. Borrowers came to the S&L looking for a loan and were told to come back when a current loan paid off. What the bank needed was a way to sell the loans they made freeing up the capital to lend to new borrowers. This way they could lend the “same” money over and over, earning an income from servicing the loans and assisting the community by offering a near limitless pool of money. To address this issue, Fannie Mae and Ginnie Mae were established. The goal is to provide affordable money to prospective homeowners and a high quality bond for the investment community. The bond or Mortgage Backed Security (MBS) take home loans with similar risk characteristics and pool them together. Investors in the MBS’s know ahead of time the return they are going to receive, much like a Certificate of Deposit. To ensure the performance of the bond, each loan is underwritten to specific guidelines.

Ask The Expert is a feature of OriginationPro Update. If you would like to submit a question, you can email Dave at success@hershmangroup.com.

Want to send a personalized consumer version of this newsletter to your sphere? The "Real Estate Report" is focused upon what your clients are interested in: Real Estate (not the secondary markets). Click Here for a FREE 14-Day Trial.

Breaking News:   The federal flood insurance program has been extended until May 31, 2012 under another short-term consolidated appropriations bill (H.R. 2055) passed by the House and Senate and signed into law by President Obama on Dec. 23. Had the appropriations bill not passed, the National Flood Insurance Program’s authority to issue new or renewal flood insurance policies would have expired at midnight on Dec. 23. Insurance agents— the Independent Insurance Agents & Brokers of America (Big “I”) — applauded the reauthorization while continuing to press for a longer term authorization and program reforms. “It is important to note that our work on this important issue is far from over and the next few months provide ample opportunity for Congress to pass long-term extension and reform legislation that provides the necessary certainty for consumers,” said Charles E. Symington Jr., Big “I” senior vice president for government affairs. Symington noted that Congress has traditionally extended the program for five year periods in order to provide stability for the marketplace; however, for the last few years Congress had only extended the program for short periods, mostly from 30 days to six months. “Today’s extension, although greatly appreciated, is just a temporary patch,” said John Prible, Big “I” vice president for federal government affairs. Source: Insurance Journal

Perhaps the future for loan brokers isn't so bleak after all. Wholesale lenders table funded almost $33 billion of loans in the third quarter, giving the channel a 9.2% market share, according to figures compiled by National Mortgage News and the Quarterly Data Report. In the first and second quarters of this year brokers had market shares of 6.8% and 7.9%, respectively. The 6.8% figure marked an all time low for the industry. Three years ago brokers - which facilitate the closing of loans using table funding - had a 19% share. Retailers dominated the business in 3Q with a 52% share, NMN/QDR found. Although the brokerage sector, as a whole, gained ground in 3Q many top ranked wholesalers experienced sizable volume drops compared to the year ago quarter. Source: National Mortgage News

As servicers have been getting their foreclosure affidavits and other documentation in order, a growing number of delinquent loans are moving through the foreclosure process. More than half of last month's increase was on Florida properties, though California played a big role. In October, 230,678 U.S. properties were hit with a foreclosure filing. That was more than the 214,855 filings made during September. The statistics were released by RealtyTrac, which relies on a database accumulated from more than 2,200 U.S. counties. RealtyTrac Chief Executive Officer James Saccacio explained in the report that foreclosures rose as lenders cleaned up documentation problems that have been plaguing them for the past year. "However, recent state court rulings and new state laws keep changing the rules of the foreclosure game on the fly, creating more uncertainty in the housing market and threatening to prolong the road to a robust real estate recovery," Saccacio added. Foreclosures, however, fell from 332,172 filings previously reported for October 2010. Roughly 2,056,797 foreclosure filings have been made so far this year. Filings include default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions. California accounted for 55,312 of last month's filings, more than any other state and more than the 51,842 foreclosures in the Golden State during September. After that was Florida, where filings climbed to 33,073 from 24,077. One out of every 563 U.S. homes was hit with a filing in the latest period. The rate deteriorated from one-in-605 a month earlier but was much better than one-in-389 a year earlier. Source: Mortgage Daily

Freddie Mac sold a record number of real estate owned properties in 2011 and got pretty decent pricing on most of them, according to Tracy Mooney, senior vice president of single-family servicing and real estate owned properties at Freddie. Mooney said in a blog post that the majority of REO sales at the government-sponsored enterprise are going to owner-occupants. "While we have always been open to selling to investors, our strategy is to limit the concentration of investor sales in any given area," Mooney said. "In addition, we do not typically consider any offers that require significant discount pricing." Mooney said the success of the pricing system hinges on stellar property preservation. Within three days of the occupant leaving the house is cleared, cleaned and secured. The property is then continually landscaped to try to preserve or improve neighborhood-wide valuations. "We sold a record number of single-family REO homes in the first nine months of 2011 — more than 80,000 — and we are selling more homes than we are taking in through foreclosure," Mooney said. "Thanks to our innovative sales strategies and top-performing broker network, our homes are selling in approximately four months — or about 120 days." Freddie had 59,600 REOs on its books with an estimated $10.4 billion in market value, at the end of the third quarter. The GSE received $72 billion to date from the Treasury and, so far, paid back $15 billion. Source: HousingWire

Interthinx has released its 2011 Third Quarter Mortgage Fraud Risk Report, and according to the most recent analysis, employment and income fraud risk is on the rise, up 8.8 percent from third-quarter 2010 and up 50 percent from third-quarter 2009. Company analysts believe the increase is due to borrower data being misrepresented in order to meet debt-to-income (DTI) thresholds required by lenders in the face of stagnant or declining real incomes. Other results uncovered in the most recent report include:

  • For the sixth consecutive quarter, the two riskiest states are unchanged: Nevada has the highest fraud risk, with an index value of 255; Arizona is next, with an index value of 243.
  • California was the third riskiest state overall, with an index value of 197. It was particularly well represented in all the indices, containing half of the ten riskiest metropolitan statistical areas (MSA), seven of the top ten ZIP codes, and more than half of the top ten MSAs in the property valuation and employment/income indices.
  • Non-geographic risk profiling suggests that fraud risk is greatest in loans with high loan-to-income ratios (the ratio of loan amount to monthly income). In general, all the fraud risk indices increase as the loan-to-income ratio increases, so almost universally, the highest indices occur at loan-to-income values close to or greater than 100. Source: National Mortgage Professional Magazine

The Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) released its annual report to Congress on the financial status of the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) Mutual Mortgage Insurance (MMI) Fund, the system of accounts for FHA's single family programs. HUD's report on the findings of the independent actuaries indicate that the MMIF remained positive this year at 0.24 percent, still below the statutorily required threshold of 2 percent of total insurance-in-force and lower than last year's findings of 0.50 percent. FHA's total cash plus investments is estimated at $33.7 billion, $7.7 billion higher than predicted last year by the independent actuaries. This is due to a decrease in claims and the impact of the change in insurance premium structure implemented in FY2011 combined with an increase in new insurance endorsements in FY2011 which are close to $11 billion, nearly double that of FY2010. At the same time, the economic net worth of the Fund fell by $2.1 billion this year, from $4.7 billion to $2.6 billion, as FHA continued to build loss reserves to prepare for higher expected claims in the coming years. The latest study indicates that FHA is still, as has been reported in previous years, expected to sustain significant losses on loans insured prior to 2009. The report points to loans funded by seller funded down payment assistance as the biggest source of these expected losses. The study also cites continued home price declines, an expectation that seriously delinquent loans that corrected will re-default again and an expected increase in claims during 2012 due to delayed foreclosures as additional causes for the decline in the capital reserve ratio. Factoring in the impacts of new risk controls, creation of the HECM Saver, clearer HECM policies, changes to the Condominium program and premium changes fully implemented by FY2011, the independent actuaries predict the Fund will return to the Congressionally-mandated threshold of 2 percent in 2014, more quickly than was projected by last year's review. However, the actuaries note that there is also a 50% chance that the Fund could go negative if economic conditions do not improve. The results of this study are expected to result in a renewed push for changes to the program including increasing the minimum down payment or other significant program changes. Source: MBA


Do You Read Ask The Expert?

Do You Read Ask The Expert?
Senate Votes To Restore Mortgage Limits
Refi Program Just The First Step?
Latest Rules Hurt FHA Condo Status
Is Call Reluctance Hurting Your Income?

Not a Recession

For weeks when the stock market, rates and oil prices were diving and many have given up on the recovery, we maintained at least a certain air of optimism. No one could be sure where the economy was headed, but it appeared to be temporary factors that had caused the slow patch and not a change in the fundamentals. Now the first measure of the economy for the third quarter (Gross Domestic Product) seems to bear out this theory. While the number is preliminary and certainly not strong by any means, a 2.5% growth rate does not signal an impending "double dip" recession. The most important word again is "confidence." If this number gives more businesses confidence to hire and consumers confidence to spend, then we are on the way back up.

Speaking of confidence, the progress in Europe was welcomed by investors as another confidence builder. Even the Administration's new refinance plan which will help thousands of Americans will more importantly provide positive press in the minds of consumers. Make no mistake about it. We are not out of the woods. Europe does not fix itself with a pact. One day after release of the news, analysts were indicating that the devil would be in the details. The same goes for our economy. We are nowhere near where we need to be. However, we must be moving forward and the good news is now we are again moving forward. What do we need next? Some good news from the Federal Reserve Board after their meeting and a positive employment report would be great confidence builders. Hopefully, next week we will be writing about these possibilities coming true.

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Breaking News: For more details on the new HARP Refi expansion  -- Click Here
  to view the latest on the OriginationPro Blog.

Rates were stable in the past week, however this number was released before the markets were buoyed by the good news from Europe. Freddie Mac announced that for the week ending October 27, 30-year fixed rates averaged 4.10%, down slightly from 4.11% the previous week. The average for 15-year fixed remained at 3.38%. Adjustable rates were mixed, with the average for one-year adjustables decreasing to 2.90% and five-year adjustables increasing to 3.08%. A year ago 30-year fixed rates were at 4.23%. Attributed to Frank Nothaft, Vice President and Chief Economist, Freddie Mac, "Fixed rates on home loans followed other long-term rates and showed little change, on average, from the prior week. The latest monthly housing market indicators were mixed, with consumer confidence soft, house prices largely flat and new home sales up from very low levels. The FHFA Purchase-Only House Price Index for the U.S. declined 0.1 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, while the S&P/Case-Shiller® 20-city Composite Home Price Index rose 0.2 percent between July and August. Finally, new home sales increased 5.7 percent in September to the strongest pace since April." Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.

Current Indices For Adjustable Rate Mortgages
Updated October 21, 2011
 
Index
Oct. 27
September
6-month Treasury Security
0.07%
0.04%
1-year Treasury Security
0.14%
0.10%
3-year Treasury Security
0.53%
0.35%
5-year Treasury Security
1.20%
0.90%
10-year Treasury Security
2.42%
1.98%
12-month LIBOR
 
0.831% (Sept)
12-month MTA
 
0.228% (Sept)
11th District Cost of Funds
 
1.316% (Aug)
Prime Rate
 
3.250%
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Call reluctance is the number one reason that sales people fail to achieve their objectives. The bad news is that everyone has some form of call reluctance. The good news is that something can be done about it.

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On-line classes available soon.
  
  

Thank you for taking the time to help us with your webinar training. I always look forward to it and I appreciate it. I have a question and could use your advice please. I had been an LO for 8 years (since 2002) with a local branch office. In early 2010 they closed the local branch without any notice! I had to switch gears and take another position in sales outside the Real Estate market to survive at the time. I have also kept up with all my state and fed license requirements though. I want to get back into being a loan officer, but I'm concerned about getting back with a "good" and quality lender, that will stick around. My questions are: Who might you recommend working with? How might I go about starting my client base up again since I've been out of the business for almost two years? Most of my RE partners our now out of it too!   Originator From California

Great questions. Welcome back to the industry and thanks for the kind words regarding our training.

  • As far as starting up again—it is still your sphere and that has not gone away. Have you been through my sphere marketing webinar? This is THE major key. I don’t care that your Realtors are gone—they know others who are still there and may be referring deals to them. Identify (capture those you lost), grow and deliver value to your sphere. Some “intense” marketing will help reorient your sphere to the fact that you active, though keep in mind many did not even know you were gone so you can play that down.
  • As far as a company---one thing we have learned, no one company is safe in this environment. Big companies could go and so could smaller companies. Look for relationships—people you know--in addition to a strong, committed company. Check references. Try to align your needs with what they are offering. The “benefits" (besides health) of every company are unique and so are the needs of every loan officer. Use your sphere again to network. Dave

Note: If someone is looking to 'get back in' and wants specific recommendations, in certain areas of the countries I do have clients I can recommend. But not all. Email me at dave@hershmangroup.com for more information.

Ask The Expert is a feature of OriginationPro Update. If you would like to submit a question, you can email Dave at success@hershmangroup.com.

Want to send a personalized consumer version of this newsletter to your sphere? The "Real Estate Report" is focused upon what your clients are interested in: Real Estate (not the secondary markets).  Go to www.OriginationPro.com  for a FREE 14-Day Trial.  

Breaking News: The Senate voted to attach a proposal to a spending bill that could restore the size of loans the government buys or insures to a maximum loan amount of $729,750 in many markets. The higher conforming loan limits expired at the end of September, reverting to a maximum amount of $625,500, despite mass calls from the industry that doing so could potentially weaken the housing market, particularly in high-priced areas. The lower loan limits are making it more difficult for “middle class home buyers to get credit when credit is tight," says Robert Menendez, D-N.J., who introduced the bill amendment. "Getting our housing market moving again is one of the most important tasks facing the country.” The Senate voted 60-38 on the spending bill. It’s expected to go before the House later this year. The National Association of REALTORS®, along with several other housing groups, have been urging Congress to renew a two-year extension that would maintain the GSE maximum loan limit at $729,750. Source: Reuters For more up-to-date news on this and other important legislation, visit the OriginationPro Blog--www.originationpro.wordpress.com.

Arizona has taken over PMI Group, whose mortgage insurance arm now will pay just 50 percent of claims in cash with the remainder deferred. The firm had been paying about $1.5 billion a year in claims to lenders and investors to cover some of their losses when homeowners default but was ordered two months ago to stop selling new policies. The struggles at PMI signal that lenders and investors may face more losses, and Mortgage Bankers Association CEO David Stevens said the moves by Arizona were a surprise for the industry. "America needs a stable and fiscally sound MI industry, which is so critical to providing financing for low-down-payment buyers," he added. Source: The Wall Street Journal

Analysts expect results from the changes to the Home Affordable Refinance Program announced to be modest, but the Obama administration said it is working to expand the number of reachable borrowers even further. The Federal Housing Finance Agency removed a series of barriers to help more underwater borrowers with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans refinance. The agency itself could not give a specific estimate of how many borrowers could be reached but did say the changes could double the 838,000 who already went through the program. "While some potential changes, such as a waiver of reps and warranties on HARP loans, could be meaningful in terms of raising HARP volume sharply, the numbers are still likely to be small relative to the residential finance market as a whole," said analysts at the investment bank Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. The Department of Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan said in a conference call the changes would help borrowers save roughly $2,500 per year on their housing payment, the equivalent of a massive tax cut, he said. "There is still significant work to be done," Donovan said. "We believe the benefits of streamlining HARP could be applied to those loans below 80% LTV, for example reducing closing costs and other issues even further. We look forward to working with FHFA in coming weeks on this." Donovan also said the Treasury Department began discussion with states that received the $7.6 billion in Hardest Hit Funds to see if new programs could be developed to help more borrowers with closing cost assistance. Source: HousingWire

The Community Associations Institute say a series of rule revisions by the Federal Housing Administration has caused thousands of condo projects to become ineligible for FHA loans. This, in turn, has abruptly shut off loan money for would-be buyers and refinancers, forcing them to pursue conventional bank loans requiring much higher down payments — sometimes 20 percent and higher compared with the FHA’s 3.5 percent minimum — which they often cannot afford. FHA says its rule changes, which focus on project budgets, insurance and financial reserves, have been prudent and are designed to avert losses from delinquencies and foreclosures. But the agency confirms that thousands of condo projects have failed to obtain or apply for required recertifications under the new rules. Out of approximately 25,000 condo projects nationwide with expiration dates for FHA eligibility between last December and Sept. 30 of this year, only 2,100 have been approved or recertified by the agency, according to Lemar Wooley, an agency spokesman. Source: The Washington Post

United Guaranty Corp. is expanding its underwriting requirements to allow greater flexibility on broker-originated loans. The Greensboro, N.C.-based company issued a bulletin outlining the revised third-party originator requirements for brokers. MI applications received after Nov. 13 are eligible using United Guaranty's risk-based Performance Premium pricing. Fixed-rate and adjustable-rate loans with no rate adjustments during the first five years can be insured by the American International Group subsidiary. Loan amounts in excess of $417,000 are eligible for broker origination, as are two-unit properties, second homes and cashout refinances. United Guaranty needs the full submission file to insure loans under the expanded requirements. Source: Mortgage Daily

Residential delinquencies fell to 8.09% in September, a slight decline from the prior month but an almost 13% improvement from the same month a year ago, according to new "First Look" figures compiled by Lender Processing Services. The delinquency numbers include all loans that are 30 days or more past due but exclude foreclosures. The company's findings are based on an analysis of 40 million loans – out of a possible universe of 56 million units. In total, 4.2 million home loans are "late." Although the decline in late payments appears to be good news, foreclosures are still exceedingly high. According to LPS, 1.84 million homes are considered 90 days or more past due – but are not in foreclosure. It measures the foreclosure "pre-sale" inventory at 2.17 million units. Source: National Mortgage News

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What's Happening With Rates?

October 18, 2011
⇒ What's Happening With Rates?
Refinance Plan "On The Way"
HUD: No Investor 203K Coming
Loan Fraud Soars
New Marketing System Unveiled
FHA Regulatory Update
Good News From Europe

Europe is working on a comprehensive plan to address long-standing government debt and banking problems and that is good news according to our markets. Coupled with better news on our own economic front and a few strong early earnings reports, the stock markets have enjoyed a strong rebound in the past two weeks which has brought the indices close to break even for the year. That is the good news. However, we are not out of the woods yet. Europe's plan does nothing to reverse the weakness of the European economies and we will continue to have a drag upon our economy as state and local governments pare down their workforces with the Federal Government likely to join the party after our own government's debt plan is announced. We will also have to endure more intensive in-fighting as we near the November deadline to strike a deal on the debt plan.

Looking beyond these potential roadblocks, we again emphasize that our economy is not slipping into recession and is not likely to do so save a worsening of the situation in Europe or another unforeseen catastrophe. In the past months, the markets were priced for a greater risk of a recession with a steep drop in stocks, oil prices and rates. Now that this pricing is being removed, you are seeing a rebound in these markets. It does not mean that the markets will continue in this direction as the pricing adjusts back to a "slow recovery." It will take better economic news for that to happen. However, if we theoretically remove the threat of recession, there is no reason for the economy not to continue to heal slowly but surely. And if it does, the opportunities for low-rate bargains on houses and cars may also fade away. We can't predict when this will happen, but we do know it will happen at some point and if you are a potential buyer, you don't want to get caught behind the curve.

  
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Rates reversed course in the past week after the release of the jobs report and better news from Europe. Freddie Mac announced that for the week ending October 13, 30-year fixed rates averaged 4.12%, up from 3.94% the previous week. The average for 15-year fixed rose to 3.37%. Adjustable rates were mixed, with the average for one-year adjustables decreasing to 2.90% and five-year adjustables increasing to 3.06%. A year ago 30-year fixed rates were at 4.19%. Attributed to Frank Nothaft, Vice President and Chief Economist, Freddie Mac, "An employment report that was better than market expectations helped to lift long-term Treasury bond yields and rates home loans as well. The economy added 103,000 workers in September, aided by the return of striking Verizon workers. In addition, revisions to July and August figures added a total of 99,000 jobs to payrolls. However, these job gains were still not large enough to bring down the current unemployment rate of 9.1 percent. "Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.

Current Indices For Adjustable Rate Mortgages
Updated October 14, 2011
 
Index
Oct. 13
September
6-month Treasury Security
0.05%
0.04%
1-year Treasury Security
0.11%
0.10%
3-year Treasury Security
0.51%
0.35%
5-year Treasury Security
1.11%
0.90%
10-year Treasury Security
2.19%
1.98%
12-month LIBOR
 
0.831% (Sept)
12-month MTA
 
0.228% (Sept)
11th District Cost of Funds
 
1.316% (Aug)
Prime Rate
 
3.250%
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I read last week about the client who thought that rates were going to 2.0%. As strange as that sounded--I was not expecting rates to go up from here. What happened? Originator from Arizona

Well, as I said last week, you can never predict the future of rates. As a matter of fact, by the time you read this, rates could be back down. In my mind there are two things which caused the rise in rates....

  • Better economic news. The employment report was better than analysts expected and right now this is the most important monthly economic report. The amount of jobs created does not point to a strong recovery. But it does not look like a recession either, and the markets certainly were pricing in dire economic news.
  • Better news from Europe. The threat of financial calamity in Europe was hanging over the markets. With a bailout plan in the works, the markets got optimistic. Like our economy, Europe is not out of the woods, but positive news is welcomed by the markets.

As I have been saying, the economy is in better shape than the dire news which was priced into the markets. That is why rates rebounded so sharply when just "decent" news hit the wires. Many were counting on Operation Twist to help push rates down, but the Fed can't control the markets. This type of "indirect" medicine only works to support a trend--not to fight against one. And if the economy does rebound, the Fed may stop doing the twist anyway. Dave

Ask The Expert is a feature of OriginationPro Update. If you would like to submit a question, you can email Dave at success@hershmangroup.com.


 Breaking News: 

As the Obama Administration examines options to expedite the sale of foreclosed properties, the Federal Housing Administration is weighing a tweak to its 203(k) program, opening it once again to investors. FHA acting commissioner Carol Galante told National Mortgage News that re-opening the 203(k) to investors is under consideration, but a decision has not been made yet. "It's still on the table," Galante said. For 15 years FHA has maintained a moratorium on allowing investors to use the 203(k) program because of past abuses. Owner-occupants continue to use 203(k) loans, which allow the borrower to finance both the purchase of the property and upgrades into one high LTV home loan guaranteed by the government. In the current REO market small investors are playing a significant role in turning foreclosed homes into rental properties, but many are using cash. Under present rules Fannie Mae limits financing per-investor at 10 loans and Freddie Mac has a five-loan limit. Source: National Mortgage News Update: Re-opening the Federal Housing Administration property rehabilitation loan program to investors will not happen anytime soon, according to Department of Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan. For more information on this statement, visit the OriginationPro Blog, www.originationpro.wordpress.com.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency is likely to provide detailed plans for a refinancing program in the next couple of weeks, reports Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner. Speaking to the Senate Banking Committee, he said the initiative would allow more homeowners to refinance into loans with better interest rates; and it could have a significant impact on the housing market. He declined to quantify how many homeowners would benefit, noting that there have been dramatic overestimates of the impact of past housing programs. Source: American Banker

Freddie Mac was not aggressive enough in conducting loan reviews and demanding buybacks of toxic home loans from loan sellers, finds a Sept. 27 report from the Federal Housing Finance Agency. Instead of maximizing recovery of money from banks that sold flawed loans, the report said Freddie Mac chose to preserve its business relationships with those firms at the expense of taxpayers, who are keeping it and sister company Fannie Mae afloat. FHFA has put loan repurchase agreements on hold while it and Freddie Mac look into strategies for detecting more troubled loans. Source: Business Week

Residential home loan fraud soared during the second quarter, as debt elimination scams and cases of misrepresenting income, occupancy, or debt led the pack, the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network reports. Another common fraud scam found in the second quarter involved fraudulently using Social Security numbers on loan documents. Overall, loan fraud suspicious activity in the second quarter of 2011 reported by financial institutions totaled 29,558 items -- up from 15,727 in the same quarter of 2010. A lot of the spike was from loans that had closed during the height of the real estate boom, FinCEN reported. About 81 percent of the suspicious activity filed during the second quarter involved activities that had occurred prior to 2008. "We're continuing to see a large number of [suspicious activity reports] filed on activity that occurred more than two years ago, an indication that financial institutions are uncovering fraud as they sift through defaulted loans," FinCEN Director James H. Freis Jr. said in a statement. "But we also continue to see indications of ongoing fraud activities.” Other common scams for fraud included identity theft, false statements and false documents, fraud involving short sales and appraisals, forged rescission of notice of default, advance fee scams, buy and bail schemes, and money laundering, according to FinCEN’s second quarter report. Source: Realtor® Daily News

Fannie Mae's rate of seriously delinquent single-family home loans fell 5 basis points in August to 4.03 percent, according to home loan financier. Freddie Mac, meanwhile, disclosed that its share of loans at least 90 days past due fell to 3.49 percent, down 2 basis points. Delinquencies at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac crested at 3.359 percent and 4.20 percent, respectively, in February of last year. Source: Investor's Business Daily

The number of Americans struggling to make their home loan payments is at traditional highs, while properties remain at high levels of negative equity. Popular strategies for helping distressed borrowers include loan modification and refinancing, to name a few. But at the largest player in the nation, Fannie Mae, there is one option that the government-sponsored enterprise has no plans to use. Michael Williams, the CEO of Fannie Mae, tells HousingWire magazine that the firm will not ask servicers to reduce the principal on distressed loans. "We do not do principal reduction," Williams said. "When we look at the toolset that we bring to the table, we really look at the rate, term and then forbearance of principal but not forgiveness of principal." Source: HousingWire

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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2008 All Over Again?

August 16, 2011
2008 All Over Again?
Another Downgrade Could Be Coming
Home Loan Interest Deduction on Block?
Industry Lobbies For Loan Limit Extension
Principal Reduction All The Rage
Get Your Loans Through Underwriting Easier!

 Anyone Know How To Control a Yoyo?

There are rumors that half of Wall Street had to visit emergency rooms this past week. They were all suffering from motion sickness. And what a wild ride it was. From a budget deal to a credit downgrade to a Federal Reserve Meeting all in one motion. Really, no one knows how this will all play out, but we do know this -- Stocks have undergone a significant correction and the bottom line is that we finally have a reaction to the slowdown in the economy. The pieces are falling into place with extraordinarily low rates and oil prices down 20% from their recent peak. We also know that everyone is afraid to blink because all of these numbers could reverse themselves in a few hours due to extreme volatility. The Fed statement regarding rates and the economy was also extraordinary. Typically the Fed does not give a hint with regard to the future direction of rates, at least beyond a month or two. Now they are all but guaranteeing low rates for two years and will consider future actions to bolster the economy.

The Fed definitely acknowledged that the economy was growing too slowly and that there is more risk to the downside at the present time. One factor after another has affected the economy's performance, from earthquakes to floods to the European debt crisis. Now budget cuts stand to take some more air out of the recovery. Many are asking, are we heading for another financial meltdown? "Not likely" say most analysts. This is not 2008. The economy is growing, albeit slowly. We added just 100,000 jobs last month, but it was better than the hundreds of thousands we were losing monthly a few years ago. Retail sales grew by 0.5% in July which means that consumers are spending. Companies, including many banks, are flush with cash and have the ability to hire as soon as it is evident that the economy will not fall back into recession. Finally, it should also be noted that the Fed controls short-term rates directly and long-term rates indirectly. Even with the Fed holding short-term rates low, if the economy does start to heat up, long-term borrowing costs will go up regardless of the Fed's efforts. This is a great time to refinance, purchase a house or a car and help get the economy rolling.

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Rates on home loans fell again in the past week. Freddie Mac announced that for the week ending August 11, 30-year fixed rates averaged 4.32%, down from 4.39% the previous week. The average for 15-year fixed fell to a record low of 3.50%. Adjustable rates also moved to record lows, with the average for one-year adjustables decreasing to 2.89% and five-year adjustables falling to 3.13%, also a record low. A year ago 30-year fixed rates were at 4.44%. Attributed to Frank Nothaft, Vice President and Chief Economist, Freddie Mac, "Renewed market concerns about the European debt markets led investors to shift funds into U.S. Treasuries, pushing long-term yields lower. Further, in its August 9th Federal Open Market Committee statement, the Federal Reserve noted that economic growth so far this year had been considerably slower than it expected and that overall labor market conditions had deteriorated in recent months, leading the Committee to conclude that an exceptionally low federal funds rate should be maintained at least through mid-2013. These developments helped to ease rates on home loans lower this week. Lower rates will help to maintain the high degree of home-buyer affordability in the market. The National Association of Realtors® reported that its affordability index over the past three quarters has indicated the highest affordability since the inception of the index in 1970." Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.

Current Indices For Adjustable Rate Mortgages
Updated August 12, 2011
Index
August 11
July
6-month Treasury Security
0.08%
0.08%
1-year Treasury Security
0.10%
0.19%
3-year Treasury Security
0.19%
0.68%
5-year Treasury Security
1.02%
1.54%
10-year Treasury Security
2.34%
3.00%
12-month LIBOR
 
0.727% (July)
12-month MTA
 
0.243% (July)
11th District Cost of Funds
 
1.338% (June)
Prime Rate
 
3.250%
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  I remember the  strategy that I learned in one of your classes. I have a client that was turned down by one of the major lenders because of her income. We wrote  a letter and provided supporting documentation and the underwriter will use the current rate of pay. She had already signed a contract so her down payment was in jeopardy. Now she’s getting the house & you can imagine how happy the Realtor is...Louis Rosa, NY. 
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I read your answer last week about those who want to renegotiate rates that are already locked in. You mentioned education and risks of locking. What are the risks of locking? Bob from New Jersey

That is a good question. We all know about the risk of floating. Rates may go up. But what are the risks of locking? I see two such risks...

  • First, many loan officers advise their clients to lock in more quickly than they should. This adds a risk that the lock will expire because the loan will not close on time. There is more risk 60 days from now than there is 7 days from now. That is why 60-day locks are more expensive than 30-day locks. If you lock in now and the lock expires in 60 days--the markets could have moved precipitously. If you wait one week--the risk is less. This does not mean that the situation will always work in your client's favor--but we are talking about percentages of risk. Need a second to be resubordinated on a refi? Make sure you can get it done in time BEFORE you lock in a client.
  • The second risk is more obvious. If your client locks in a rate and then rates fall precipitously, either the client pays a higher rate or you may lose the loan. Last week we talked about putting yourself in the best position to renegotiate with secondary departments, which is more likely with major moves like we have seen in the past few weeks. Again, the client must be educated with regard to what it means to lock in a loan and what the risks are in either direction. The better they are educated, the fewer problems you will have with regard to changes in the markets. Dave 
Ask The Expert is a feature of OriginationPro Update. If you would like to submit a question, you can email Dave at success@hershmangroup.com.

 Breaking News:  A Standard & Poor’s official says there is a 1 in 3 chance that the U.S. credit rating could be downgraded another notch if conditions erode over the next six to 24 months. The credit rating agency’s managing director, John Chambers, told ABC’s “This Week” that if the fiscal position of the U.S. deteriorates further, or if political gridlock tightens even more, a further downgrade is possible. Chambers also said that it would take “stabilization and eventual decline” of the federal debt as a share of the economy as well as more consensus in Washington for the U.S. to win back a top rating. This statement followed S&P downgrading the U.S. rating, from AAA to AA+, for the first time. Source: The Associated Press Note: What does this mean? Even more volatility could be ahead.

The debt ceiling agreement signed into law on August 2 has no direct impact on real estate tax rules or spending provisions, but the industry isn’t out of the woods yet, because the deal includes authority that could make it easier for Congress to make tax law changes in the months ahead. The new law increases the debt ceiling in two steps. The first is automatic through the end of the year. The second increase is contingent on a number of factors, including recommendations for cuts and tax increases from House and Senate committees and a new super committee that will package together the recommendations or make its own as needed. The super committee is given the authority to identify up to $1.5 trillion in deficit reductions over 10 years. This deficit reduction is on top of almost $1 trillion in cuts to be made over the next few months, for a total of about $2.4 trillion in cuts over the 10-year period. The almost $1 trillion in cuts over the next few months include no tax increases, but the $1.5 trillion second phase can include a mix of cuts and revenue increases. If the $1.5 trillion target in the second phase of cuts isn’t met, a mechanism for automatically making cuts kicks in. A significant portion of those cuts must be to military spending. The next 100 days could be the most important part of the battle for real estate, because it’s in this period that the mortgage interest deduction and tax rules for carried interest are expected to be most at risk. Under the carried interest provision, the income of general partners in real estate partnerships is taxed at the capital gains rate. Under changes that have been proposed in the past, that income would be taxed as ordinary income, a higher rate. Source: Realtor® Magazine Daily News

Freddie Mac reported a second-quarter loss of $2.1 billion, down from a loss of $4.7 billion a year ago. The company paid $1.6 billion to the government and requested $1.5 billion in new aid, marking the fourth period in a row that it did not incur a loss for taxpayers after making its regular dividend payment to the Treasury. Freddie Mac continues to show signs of stability, partly because it has a smaller loan book and guaranteed fewer risky loans than Fannie Mae. Source: The Wall Street Journal

The J.D. Power and Associates 2011 primary servicer satisfaction study showed "frustration continues to mount for homeowners who originated their loans during the peak of the housing boom" and are unable to refinance despite historically low rates. The survey of 4,516 homeowners measured consumer satisfaction with the billing and payment process; escrow account administration; website; and phone contact. J.D. Power and Associates said respondent satisfaction declined in all four areas from a year ago. "Many homeowners who are still in home loans that were originated between 2006 and 2008 — when home values peaked and credit standards were the most lax — would like to refinance, but can't because they either don't have enough equity in their home due to falling home prices or their credit profile doesn't meet today's tougher standards," according to David Lo, director of financial services at J.D. Power and Associates. Source: HousingWire

National banking, realtor and homebuilding associations -- along with nine other housing industry trade groups -- have signed a letter calling for a one-year extension of current FHA loan limits, which expire on Sept. 30. According to the letter, most recently endorsed by the National Reverse Mortgage Lenders Association, some lenders are no longer taking applications at current limits out of concern that the loans will not close prior to expectations -- a move that has disrupted home sales. Reverse Mortgage Daily

Mortgage Insurance Cos. of America reports that MI firms wrote $4.8 billion of primary new business last month, up from $3.9 billion in May. The strong performance suggests that purchase money originations may be growing and that private insurers are beginning to win market share from FHA. However, primary insurance in force continues to fall, at a rate of $5 billion a month; and new notices of default are on the rise. Source: American Banker

Freddie Mac says 77% of homeowners who refinanced first-lien home loans in the second quarter either reduced principal loan amounts or maintained the same loan value while benefiting from historically low rates. Of those who refinanced, 51% ended up with the same loan amount, while 26% lowered their principal balance in 2Q, according to second-quarter refinance analysis from Freddie Mac. Meanwhile, the median rate reduction for a 30-year, fixed-rate loans was about one percentage point, or a savings of 18%. Those same borrowers will save about $1,550 in payments on a $200,000 loan during the first year of the refinanced loan's life, Freddie said. “Savvy homeowners are taking advantage of some of the lowest fixed-rates in more than 50 years to lock in savings," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie's vice president and chief economist. Source: HousingWire


Budget Crunch Time

July 19, 2011
Budget Crunch Time
Score Disclosure Required August 15
Movement to Halt Reduction in Limits
LO Comp: False Alarm
Are You Recruiting?

Gangs of Washington 

Will this be the stuff that legends are made of? Will it be like Wyatt Earp's posse riding into town and saving the day? Or will the "Gang of Six" idea just prolong the budget agony? Why is it that human nature makes sure that any big decisions must be made at the last possible moment? And why do we have so many questions to start our economic commentary? We have been dealing with the debt ceiling situation all year. There is no reason for the negotiations to go down to the wire, because a deal has to get done. Closing the government for any more than a few days would cause irreparable harm to the economy. We might as well shoot the economy dead, as Federal  Reserve Chairman Bernanke has warned. Why would we want to shoot ourselves in the foot, especially when we are already limping? Here is the good news. The "Gang of Six" proposal, even if it does not work, may have a chance to mitigate the short term damage caused by going down to the wire. The markets are already reacting positively, despite the fact that they remain extremely volatile. The markets are certainly nervous and rightfully so. Gold has soared.

As we get closer to the deadline, we would expect even more market volatility. But if optimism over this deal grows, it may temper the reaction. The best case scenario? The "Gang of Six" proposal will not get done by early August as it is not even a detailed legislative document. However, if the proposal enables the government to get a short-term deal done with work progressing towards a real plan to lower the deficits, then this would be  very good news. If all sides work together to forge a substantive deal instead of a band-aid, you could see stocks continue the rally and consumers gaining confidence. Keep in mind that the "Gang of Six" is comprised of bi-partisan Senators and the House is currently much more conservative. These conservatives have not indicated that they will back the "revenue enhancement" segment of the deal. We have a pluralistic democracy and as painful as the day-to-day is with everyone getting a say, no one wants to look at the alternative of a dictatorship. That is what makes America great.

 
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More Up-To-Date News, Sales Advice and More in the OriginationPro Blog.  Click Here to Read July 22 Posting: A Recruiting Plan For Success.

Rates on home loans were stable in the past week. Freddie Mac announced that for the week ending July 21, 30-year fixed rates averaged 4.52%, up one tick from 4.51% the previous week. The average for 15-year fixed increased slightly to 3.66%. Adjustable rates were mixed, again with slight movements, with the average for one-year adjustables increasing to 2.97% and five-year adjustables falling to 3.27%. A year ago 30-year fixed rates were at 4.56%. Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac, "Rates were virtually unchanged this week amid mixed economic data reports. Although both the overall producer and consumer price indices fell moderately in June on lower energy costs, the core price indices inched up. In addition, consumer sentiment sank to the lowest reading since March 2009, based on figures from the University of Michigan. The recent housing data also varied. For example, single-family housing starts jumped 9.4 percent in June to the strongest pace since November 2010 and homebuilder confidence rebounded in July. Yet, existing home sales fell 0.8 percent in June and represented the fewest since November 2010." Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.

Current Indices For Adjustable Rate Mortgages
Updated July 22, 2011
Index
July 21
June 
6-month Treasury Security
0.09%
0.10%
1-year Treasury Security
0.20%
0.18%
3-year Treasury Security
0.69%
0.71%
5-year Treasury Security
1.56%
1.58%
10-year Treasury Security
3.03%
3.00%
12-month LIBOR
 
0.727% (June)
12-month MTA
 
0.252% (June)
11th District Cost of Funds
 
1.360% (May)
Prime Rate
 
3.250%
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 I have hired four originators thus far this year and I think only one of them is going to survive. Is this track record acceptable, or should I be doing better? It seems like I would make more money just producing instead of managing those who will not make it. Louisville Manager

They answer is "yes" and "no." Could I be any more wishy-washy? I believe only 20% of originators are candidates to succeed, though the number may be higher now that we have culled many of the weak from the industry. So if you are recruiting randomly, 1 out of four is almost on target in a tough market. In a better market you would do better (until things got worse). On the other hand, because you are asked to produce and recruit as a manager (plus perform about four other full time jobs)--most do worse than the random average because they don't have the time to devote to a quality recruiting strategy.

So what is the answer? It is synergy. Knowing your objectives. Most who hire really have not really defined the characteristics of a successful loan officer candidate. If you don't know where you are going, how do you know when you arrive? We will cover this topic in more detail in my complementary webinar: Great Manager and Recruiting Skills For Leaders scheduled for tomorrow July 27. Register at no cost using this link: https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/440140058.

Ask The Expert is a feature of OriginationPro Update. If you would like to submit a question, you can email Dave at success@hershmangroup.com.

 Breaking News:  On January 15, 2010, the Federal Reserve published final rules to implement the risk-based pricing provisions in section 311 of the Fair and Accurate Credit Transactions Act of 2003 (FACT Act), which amended the Fair Credit Reporting Act (FCRA). The final rules generally require a creditor to provide a risk-based pricing notice to a consumer when the creditor uses a consumer report to grant or extend credit to the consumer on material terms that are materially less favorable than the most favorable terms available to a substantial proportion of consumers from or through that creditor. The Board and the Commission are amending their respective risk-based pricing rules to require disclosure of credit scores and information relating to credit scores in risk-based pricing notices if a credit score of the consumer is used in setting the material terms of credit. These final rules reflect the new requirements in section 615(h) of the FCRA that were added by section 1100F of the Dodd-Frank Act. These rules are effective August 15, 2011. Source: AllRegs.com

Foreclosure filings fell dramatically during the first half of the year as processing delays at the banks, which are strapped with excess inventory of repossessed homes, continued to skew the numbers -- and falsely raise hopes that the housing market is staging a recovery. Foreclosure filings plunged 29% compared with the same period a year ago and were down 25% from the last six months of 2010, according to the latest report from RealyTrac, an online marketer of foreclosed properties. Through June 30, 1.2 million U.S. homeowners -- or one in every 111 households -- received a foreclosure filing, according to RealtyTrac. The deceleration in defaults continued as the year wore on with second quarter filings -- at 608,235 households -- marking the lowest quarterly total since the end of 2007, when the real estate meltdown was still in its youth Ultimately, the artificial foreclosure delays are prolonging the housing market's ills, said Arnold Kling, an economist with the Mercatus Center at George Mason University and formerly with Freddie Mac. "The government should be trying to speed foreclosures, not stop them," he said. "Postponing foreclosures may simply be putting off the inevitable market bottom. We need to remove barriers to foreclosures." Source: CNN/Money

The House easily approved the Flood Insurance Reform Act, a bill that enjoyed rare bipartisan support even though it could result in higher flood insurance premiums at a time of significant flooding in the middle of the country. The bill, H.R. 1309, was approved in a 406-22 vote. Several members of both parties agreed that a top priority of the bill is eliminating the red ink that the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) has generated over the past several decades. Members noted that the NFIP is nearly $18 billion in debt, and spoke in favor of the bill that would require the phasing in of actuarially sound rates for flood insurance policies, and phasing out taxpayer subsidized rates. This change is expected to raise $4.2 billion over 10 years, giving the NFIP a start at paying down its debt. Republicans in particular noted that just 1 percent of the claims brought under the NFIP come from 40 percent of the policyholders, a sign that the NFIP was not pricing risk appropriately. This fix, more than any other, seemed to bring the parties together on a bill that would extend the NFIP until September 30, 2016. Without an extension, the NFIP expires at the end of this September. Source: The Hill

The Federal Reserve Board has not changed its interpretation regarding the loan officer compensation rule in a consumer-paid transaction, as initially thought. At a congressional hearing, Rep. Brad Sherman, D-Calif., indicated that brokers could compensate their employees through commissions in consumer-paid transactions. "I understand this represents a change in their policy," Rep. Sherman said at a House Financial Services subcommittee hearing Wednesday afternoon. The congressman cited written testimony by Fed consumer affairs director Sandra Braunstein for his conclusion. But it now appears to be a misunderstanding. "The Federal Reserve Board has not revised its regulations or the staff commentary that interrupts the rule," a Fed spokesman said. At the hearing, Rep. Sherman asked National Association of Mortgage Brokers vice president Mike Anderson to comment on the Fed's new interpretation. But Anderson said he was not aware of the change and needed to review the Fed’s interpretation before commenting. Contacted on Thursday by National Mortgage News, Anderson said there must be a misunderstanding because Braunstein's testimony states that a brokerage firm cannot pay a commission to a loan officer if the brokerage is paid directly by the consumer. Her testimony goes on to say a broker can pay an “incentive fee” to an employee in transactions where the consumer pays origination fees directly to the brokerage firm. But an incentive fee is not the same as a commission. "There is no change," Anderson said. Source: National Mortgage News

Rep. John Campbell (R-Calif.) and Rep. Gary Ackerman (D-N.Y.) introduced a bill that would extend the current conforming loan limit for government-backed home loans for another two years. The Conforming Loan Limits Extension Act, or H.R. 2508, would allow the government-sponsored enterprises and the Federal Housing Administration to guarantee or buy home loans worth as much as $729,750 in most neighborhoods. If Congress does not pass this bill, the loan limit will drop to $625,500, though the limit will vary by county. A recent report from the National Association of Home Builders showed 17 million homes would become ineligible for less expensive federal funding. The drop could affect as many as 669 counties across 42 states. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, however, told the House Financial Services Committee this week that he believed the private market, including investors and insurers, was ready to take over for the government — albeit at a higher cost to the consumer. How far the bill makes it through the Republican-controlled House Financial Services Committee remains a question. When the Obama administration submitted its white paper on the future of housing finance, it suggested winding down Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the initial step could be allowing elevated conforming loan limits set in 2008 to expire. Source: HousingWire

Millions of underwater homeowners could be helped under a bill that is gaining momentum in the U.S. Senate. The bill, authored by California Senator Barbara Boxer, would remove barriers that have halted millions of upside down homeowners from refinancing their homes. “The Helping Responsible Homeowners Act” would order government backed home lending giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to waive fees and remove barriers keeping borrowers from refinancing to lower rates. The bill would aid millions of underwater homeowners trying to hold on to their properties and aid the lending industry, troubled by the financial crisis and the real estate crash. The provision would remove refinancing limits on homes that are upside down on their home loans or owe more on their loan than the home’s current value. The bill gained momentum when a Republican Senator joined Boxer, a veteran Democrat with a flair for being dramatic as a co-sponsor of the bill. Senator Johnny Isakson (R-GA), who ran one of the country’s largest independent real estate brokerages, joined Boxer to sponsor the proposal before Congress. Source: Housing Predictor


Debt Deadline Approaches--What Could Happen

July 19, 2011
Debt Deadline Approaches--What Could Happen
FHA to Tighten Debt Ratio?
HUD Rules on Maternity Leave
Summary of New FHA Condo Rules Available
FHA Short Refi Program a Bust
Free Recruiting and Management Webinar

This Debt Issue is Serious

We are quite sure that we did not need to state the obvious. However, as obvious as the importance of the Federal debt situation is to the average person, we are getting the impression from the media that certain members of Congress are not taking the possibility of default seriously enough. How can that be? For decades, every time the limits of the government's borrowing power was reached, after some hemming and hawing, Congress voted to raise the debt ceiling. It was unthinkable that we would stop paying our bills. Now some members have said, "enough is enough." We need to seriously address balancing the budget before the next such action is taken. Discussions have been going on for some time now and we are now running up against a deadline which comes in early August. Could we really have the government shut down temporarily just as the State of Minnesota did recently? Could the "unthinkable" actually happen?

We hope not. The economic recovery has faced enough headwinds this year without the damage a shut down even for a few days could cause. And who knows how bad the financial markets could react. We agree with the "enough is enough" sentiment. Something must be done in order to get the long-term deficits under control. Cuts in a weak economy will not help the recovery in the short-run, however, the fact that the government is willing to address the longer-term issues will give the financial markets and consumers more confidence in the long-run. This confidence will far out-weigh positively the temporary lack of stimulus. A deal must be cut and every side must compromise for that to happen. It would be nice if Americans heard that all elected officials were working seriously together to help solve our problems. What a concept. In the meantime, the closer we get to the deadline, the more volatility we can expert from the financial markets, much like we have seen with regard to the Greek, Portuguese and now Italian debt situations--only more pronounced.

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Rates on home loans fell back near previous lows for the year in response to the weak employment report. Freddie Mac announced that for the week ending July 14, 30-year fixed rates averaged 4.51%, down from 4.60% the previous week. The average for 15-year fixed decreased to 3.65%. Adjustable rates also fell with the average for one-year adjustables increasing to 2.95% and five-year adjustables falling to 3.29%. A year ago 30-year fixed rates were at 4.57%. Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac, "Long-term bond yields and rates on home loans fell this week following a weak employment report. The economy added 18,000 jobs in June, well below the market consensus forecast, and the unemployment rate rose to 9.2 percent, the highest since December 2010. In addition, employee wages stagnated. These factors may lead to less consumer spending, which in turn, reduces the threat of inflation in the near term. Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.

Current Indices For Adjustable Rate Mortgages
Updated July 15, 2011
Index
July 14
June 
6-month Treasury Security
0.07%
0.10%
1-year Treasury Security
0.20%
0.18%
3-year Treasury Security
0.83%
0.71%
5-year Treasury Security
1.74%
1.58%
10-year Treasury Security
3.17%
3.00%
12-month LIBOR
 
0.727% (June)
12-month MTA
 
0.252% (June)
11th District Cost of Funds
 
1.360% (May)
Prime Rate
 
3.250%
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What Will Happen If The Debt Talks Fail?  

We will go over the possibilities at the beginning of our Webinar tomorrow--

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 I read your notice that FHA was changing their condo approval guidelines. Unfortunately, I missed the webinar you gave on the topic last week. Is there a summary of the new guidelines? Question from several originators

Actually, there is not a summary of the guidelines. What FHA did is replace four Mortgagee Letters with a 95-page guide. Here is the good news. I was able to boil down the Guide to a few slides for my webinar. In this webinar, I focused upon the new condo guides, as well as a few other recent changes just released or on the way --- including estimates of lower loan limits coming at the end of September. We did record the webinar and those who register for our 60 day $9 per month trial will get access to the recorded version as well as registration for this week's webinar, Marketing and Selling for Expert Mortgage Advisors. You will also receive a link to download the new guide and matrix, as well as a listing of soon-to-be-lower FHA loan limits. 
Simply visit www.webinars.originationpro.com and sign up using coupon code "60DayOffer" to get the special. When you log-in to the system, the recording and slides and downloads will be on the home page. Also, the special trial offer will be ending in two weeks.

Ask The Expert is a feature of OriginationPro Update. If you would like to submit a question, you can email Dave at success@hershmangroup.com.


 Breaking News:  Pregnancy is not a basis to deny or delay a loan for purchasing a home, says John Trasvina, the Department of Housing and Urban Development assistant secretary for fair housing and equal opportunity. Trasvina’s statement follows a recent HUD investigation into accusations that some lenders had refused to count new mothers’ disability payments they receive while on maternity leave as income when they apply for a home loan. "Lenders may verify income and other resources and have eligibility standards, but they may not single out women on maternity leave to deny or delay loans that they are otherwise eligible for," Trasvina said. The investigation by HUD was sparked after a report in the New York Times last year that reported some lenders were discriminating against women taking maternity leave. Some lenders had claimed the disability payments the new mothers receive aren’t considered a stable source of income. HUD, which enforces the Fair Housing Act, launched multiple investigations and has, so far, uncovered violations from two lenders. “If expectant or new mothers can demonstrate that they intend to return to work and can continue to meet the income requirements to qualify for the loan, they should not be denied a loan based on being on maternity leave,” according to HUD. FHA-insured lenders are not allowed to inquire about future maternity leave. Also, “if a borrower is on maternity or short-term disability leave at the time of closing, lenders must document the borrower’s intent to return to work, that the borrower has the right to return to work, and that the borrower qualifies for the loan taking into account any reduction of income due to their leave,” according to HUD. Source: Inman News

The FHA may tighten debt-to-income ratios in an effort to reduce its delinquency rate and stabilize its insurance fund, but some say a hard cap on DTI ratios would keep the most highly leveraged consumers out of the housing market. "It doesn't do anybody any good if the borrower can't meet their debt obligations," FHA Acting Commissioner Robert Ryan insists. Mortgage Bankers Association President and CEO David Stevens says the agency is seeking "reasonable" caps on DTI, with a borrower with 10 percent down perhaps qualifying for a higher ratio but the threshold lowered for young, first-time buyers. Source: American Banker

Home owners who have lost their jobs will get more relief. The Obama administration has announced that two programs for unemployed home owners will extend the forbearance period on home loans to 12 months. For unemployed home owners with a Federal Housing Administration loan, the forbearance period will be extended from four months to 12 months. The Obama administration also said it will remove hurdles to make it easier for unemployed borrowers to qualify for FHA’s Special Forbearance Program. “The current unemployment forbearance programs have mandatory periods that are inadequate for the majority of unemployed borrowers,” U.S. Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan said in a statement. “Today, 60 percent of the unemployed have been out of work for more than three months and 45 percent have been out of work for more than six. Providing the option for a year of forbearance will give struggling home owners a substantially greater chance of finding employment before they lose their home.” The administration also announced that it will extend the minimum forbearance period in the Making Home Affordable Program from three months to 12 months for eligible unemployed home owners, when possible under regulator and investor guidelines. Forbearance will also be available to borrowers who are seriously delinquent. All FHA-approved servicers are required to participate in FHA’s Loss Mitigation Program, which includes the Special Forbearance program Source: The Washington Post

Employment in the home loan sector rose one percent in May from April to 241,500 full-time workers, reports the Bureau of Labor Statistics, with residential companies adding 2,600 new jobs but losing 1,600 brokers. In the second half of 2011, hiring could pick up at smaller firms hoping to boost market share, speculates Mortgage Bankers Association chief economist Jay Brinkmann. Servicing jobs are up as firms reach out to delinquent borrowers, MBA says, but hiring could be limited because late payments have declined. Source: American Banker

An $8 billion program launched by the Federal Housing Administration in September to help underwater borrowers refinance into a new loan has quietly sputtered out of the gate. The FHA Short Refi program was initially expected to reach between 500,000 and 1.5 million borrowers, according to a letter sent to lenders when the program was announced. Analysts were more pessimistic. More than $50 million has already been spent, but according to the Department of Housing and Urban Development, only 246 borrowers made it through the program so far. Under the program, eligible borrowers can receive an FHA-insured loan if the lender or investor writes off the unpaid principal balance of the original first-lien by at least 10%. To be eligible for the new loan, the homeowner must be underwater but still current on their home loan, which cannot be already insured by the FHA. A score of 500 or better is required. The new refinanced loan must have a loan-to-value ratio of no more than 97.75%. After receiving the new refinancing through the program, the borrower's combined loan-to-value ratio on the re-subordinated loans cannot exceed 115%. The new FHA loan can only be used to refinance the unpaid principal balance on the first lien. Source: HousingWire


What's It All About After Jobs

July 5, 2011
-What's It All About After Jobs
-HUD Publishes Final SAFE Licensing Rules
-FHA Published Comprehensive Condo Rules
-Why Newsletters? Let Me Count The Reasons....
-Fannie Mae Addresses Seasoning on Cash-Out


What's It All About...Rally?

Okay, enough with the puns. Anyone under 50 probably does not remember the song anyway, unless they are an Austin Powers fan. However, the question is real. Why did we have such a strong stock market rally the last week of the first half of the year and early July? It was the strongest week in two years. For two months stocks were taking a breather and retreating from a strong first quarter. We were in the middle of a soft patch which had enabled oil prices and rates to retreat. Even gold was cooling down. Why the sudden reversal? There are several theories. One is the "dead cat bounce," which is a brief recovery in a declining market. Certainly, bounces are common place in down markets, but this one was a doozy. It was more like a super ball bounce. The size of the bounce does not preclude the bounce theory, but it makes it less plausible. Unless you subscribe to the theory that we had a confluence of events. A bounce accompanied by end of the quarter adjustments in balance sheets along with lower volumes heading into the Holiday week. Certainly these factors could have magnified the bounce.

Finally, there is a whole other chain of thought. The markets may know something we don't know as of yet. What is that? The markets could be signaling that the soft patch due to temporary factors is over and the economy is ready to march ahead. How will we know if this is the case? The markets are looking for strong earnings to continue in the second quarter. And the markets will need to see some stronger economic reports after the reporting of the employment numbers for June. The employment numbers were written off as disappointing even before they were released, even though a strong report on private sector jobs Thursday gave the markets temporary false hope. Again we will warn those who are watching and waiting that if the economy does indeed start heating up, those lower rates, lower oil prices and lower gold prices are likely to be out the window. The bounce we saw in the past two weeks gave a good glimpse of how quickly things can turn around. On the other hand, these numbers should be kept in perspective. A slight uptick in rates would still leave us in the ridiculously low range and housing will still be very affordable. Also, oil prices did not get that low. Prices in the range of $3.70 per gallon at the pump did not seem like a bargain to us.

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Overcoming Call Reluctance. Article in the OriginationPro Blog June Entry.  Click Here to Read
 

Rates on home loans increased in the past week in response to stronger economic news, however these numbers were released before the weak jobs report on Friday. Freddie Mac announced that for the week ending July 7, 30-year fixed rates averaged 4.60%, up from 4.51% the previous week. The average for 15-year fixed increased to 3.75%. Adjustable rates also rose with the average for one-year adjustables increasing to 3.01% and five-year adjustables rising to 3.30%. A year ago 30-year fixed rates were at 4.57%. Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac, Rates on home loans followed Treasury yields higher over the holiday week but remain quite affordable by historical standards. For instance, interest rates on all home loans outstanding in the first quarter of this year averaged just under 6.0%. With today's rates, these homeowners who have the ability to refinance could shave $169 per month in interest on a $200,000, 30-year fixed loan." Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.

Current Indices For Adjustable Rate Mortgages
Updated July 8, 2011
Index
July 7
June 
6-month Treasury Security
0.07%
0.10%
1-year Treasury Security
0.20%
0.18%
3-year Treasury Security
0.83%
0.71%
5-year Treasury Security
1.74%
1.58%
10-year Treasury Security
3.17%
3.00%
12-month LIBOR
 
0.727% (June)
12-month MTA
 
0.252% (June)
11th District Cost of Funds
 
1.360% (May)
Prime Rate
 
3.250%

NAMB to Fight On?

May 3, 2011

-NAMB to Fight On?
-Do You Have Call Reluctance?
-FHA and HUD Restrict The Use of Logos in Advertising
-Missed Housing Payment and FICO Scores
-Interest-Only Making a Comeback
-First Time Buyers: The Key

Rx For A Slow Economy

The release of the first quarter's preliminary measure of economic growth was not a surprise to many economists. Surging oil prices and slow winter home sales were expected to take a bite out of growth. Forecasts had steadily reduced expectations to near the 2.0% range and 1.8% was right in line. This was a significant drop from the 3.1% rate which closed out last year. However, there was some good news in this "slowdown." For one, few are expecting a "double-dip" recession as was the fear during the pause of last spring and summer. The pace of economic growth is expected to ramp up from here. Secondly, the slower growth helps keep the Federal Reserve Board more comfortable regarding the near-term inflation outlook and keeping rates low for the foreseeable future as per their statement released last week. Low rates are essential to keep the economy rolling.

Regardless of this "good news," there is no doubt that we need to ramp up growth in order to lower unemployment. We are in a cycle in which high unemployment hurts the economy which then serves as a negative factor with regard to employment growth. This week we will see more evidence regarding whether the cycle is being broken. A third month of moderate job gains could provide the fuel for stronger economic growth later this year. Many economists believe that companies are at the point that they can't squeeze any more productivity out of their existing employees. In other words, if companies are going to expand in the future, they must hire. And that is the ultimate good news. The real question is, will they hire enough people to get the real estate markets rolling? If that happens real estate could provide a positive contribution to economic growth and we would be looking at moving toward a more positive cycle. Long-term cycles such as these don't end with one factor or one release. The steps are small--but they must be in the right direction.

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Rates eased slightly in the past week. Freddie Mac announced that for the week ending April 28, 30-year fixed rates averaged 4.78%, down from 4.80% the previous week. The average for 15-year fixed decreased to 3.97%. Adjustables also fell with the average for one-year adjustables decreasing to 3.15% and five-year adjustables falling more precipitously to 3.51%. A year ago 30-year fixed rates were at 5.06%. Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac, "Rates followed Treasury bond yields lower this week amid weak local economic data reports on business conditions. Regional Federal Reserve Banks reported that business and manufacturing activities declined in Philadelphia, Dallas and Richmond in April." Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.

 
Current Indices For Adjustable Rate Mortgages
Updated April 29, 2011
 
Index
April 28
March
6-month Treasury Security
0.10%
0.16%
1-year Treasury Security
0.23%
0.26%
3-year Treasury Security
1.03%
1.17%
5-year Treasury Security
2.00%
2.11%
10-year Treasury Security
3.34%
3.41%
12-month LIBOR
 
0.780% (March)
12-month MTA
 
0.295% (March)
11th District Cost of Funds
 
1.469% (Feb)
Prime Rate
 
3.250%

Associations Lose First Round on Comp Plan

April 6, 2011

-Associations Lose First Round on Comp Plan
-Twenty Percent Down To Be Standard?
-Treasury to Start Unloading Loans
-Fannie/Freddie Targeted by Congress
-Delinquencies Down
-HUD Issues New GFE Guidance
-Is Tough Underwriting Driving You Nuts?

This Could Be Your Last Chance

For the past few years, homes have been the most affordable on record. Low rates and low prices make a wonderful combination. However, this wonder combination may soon be coming to an end. Why do we say this? For one, new home sales are the lowest they have been since the government started keeping records in 1963. While that sounds like bad news, the inventory of new homes for sale is not going up. This inventory is actually one-third of what it was just five years ago. This commentary just appeared in Fortune: "I'm a dirt-road economist who sees what's happening on the ground, and in 35 years I've never seen a shortage of new construction like the one I'm seeing today," declares Mike Castleman, CEO of Metrostudy. "The talking heads who are down on real estate will hate to hear this, but America needs to build a lot more houses." Bottom line, we are not building fast enough to accommodate future demand. Even the ominous shadow inventory which has hung over the market is now shrinking. There were 2.0 million units in various stages of "pre-foreclosure" one year ago and 1.8 million units today, according to CoreLogic. This may not seem a huge drop, however, it is the first move downward in several years.

What makes us think that the demand will arise to continue to shrink the shadow inventory? The population of America is rising. We had shrinkage of household formulation during the recession and this masked the continuing rise in population. Tight credit conditions also turned many potential homeowners into renters, though many are renting houses. However, the news that the economy has now produced 400,000 jobs in the past two months is the continuance of a reversal of this trend. As America goes back to work, household formulation will rise again and there will be significant latent demand uncovered. We understand that two months of data does not guarantee the whole trend reverses itself. We lost about eight million jobs during the recession and the workforce grows by 150,000 monthly. So we have a long way to go, but the trend is moving in the right direction. The key is moving from a vicious to a virtuous cycle. More jobs create demand. Demand creates more jobs. And all this will help loosen credit conditions as a stronger economy will help convince banks to have faith in the average American again. You may be hearing the "bad news" regarding home prices right now--but this is a story that may be changing faster than many analysts have envisioned. Even the Federal Reserve Board is taking notice as a member stated this week that the Fed may be raising rates by the end of this year.

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Rates were up moderately for the second straight week. Freddie Mac announced that for the week ending March 31, 30-year fixed rates averaged 4.86%, up from 4.81% the previous week. The average for 15-year fixed increased to 4.09%. Adjustables were also up with the average for one-year adjustables increasing to 3.26% and five-year adjustables rising to 3.70%. A year ago 30-year fixed rates were at 5.08%. Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac, "Fixed rates rose slightly for a second week in a row, but continue to remain quite low. Low rates have benefited from relatively benign inflation reports. Inflation as measured by the 12-month growth in the core price index for consumer spending, a metric preferred by the Federal Reserve, is hovering near the lowest pace since 1960 when this data series began. Sales of distressed properties continue to place downward pressure on house prices. In January, these homes accounted for 37 percent of existing home sales and rose to 39 percent in February, based on figures from the National Association of Realtors®."  Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.

 
Current Indices For Adjustable Rate Mortgages
Updated April 1, 2011

 
Index
April 1
February
6-month Treasury Security
0.17%
0.17%
1-year Treasury Security
0.30%
0.29%
3-year Treasury Security
1.29%
1.28%
5-year Treasury Security
2.24%
2.26%
10-year Treasury Security
3.47%
3.58%
12-month LIBOR
 
0.793% (Feb)
12-month MTA
 
0.307% (Feb)
11th District Cost of Funds
 
1.469% (Feb)
Prime Rate
 
3.250%
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Webinar Today 

 "Great Application System--From Service to Referral"

Get The Latest on the Compensation Plan Delay

Wednesday, April 6, 2011

2 pm EST/11 am PST

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Today there seems to be no end to the ways that underwriters are holding up deals. You use the wrong color paperclip and that can cost you four weeks with regard to the closing date. The stress is bad enough, but you are risking long-term relationships here.  Does it seem like every time you submit a file it is going into a big black hole and you don't know what will come back up?
The Dodd-Frank Rules, including 20% down for "qualified loans" could make things worse. The only way you can gain the upper hand and take control is by knowing more than your adversary. Not that it should be a fight. When your knowledge makes it easier for underwriters to do their jobs, they will turn into an advocate--we guarantee it 
   
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Introducing a new article authored by Dave Hershman. OriginationPro is releasing the new OriginationPro CRM powered by LeadMaster, which will help you convert more leads through high level but simple technology. 
Request the white paper and you will also be able to participate in a free demo of the new OriginationPro CRM. This system generates reports, schedules follow-up  and includes NewsletterPro Marketing.
    
  

Is it true that lenders will soon be offering only loans with 20.0% down? A concerned consumer

Usually our questions come from loan personnel--but this one came from someone who is considering purchasing a home in the future. With all the publicity which revolves around the definition of a "qualified residential mortgage" (QRM), it is no wonder the average citizen is questioning what is happening. It will be our job to educate the consumer. Though the proposed rules call for a 20% down payment for purchase loans, government guaranteed loans, which would assumedly include FHA, VA, Rural Housing, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, are proposed to be exempt. Also, lenders have the option of offering lower down payment loans, but retaining 5.0% of the risk if they are sold. This may increase the price of these loans, especially for jumbo loans which are not qualified, but does not mean that lower down payment loans will not be available. Keep in mind that these rules are proposed, not final. And the long-term affect upon the market can't be determined at this point. Dave

Ask The Expert is a feature of OriginationPro Update. If you would like to submit a question, you can email Dave at success@hershmangroup.com.

Breaking News:  Late Thursday, March 31, a stay was granted by the U.S. Court of Appeals on the Fed’s loan officer compensation rule. The National Association of Mortgage Brokers (NAMB) announced the stay on its website and Facebook page. The rule will be delayed until a hearing on April 5. After months of preparation for the rule implementation, scheduled for April 1, NAMB and the National Association of Independent Housing Professionals filed lawsuits against the Fed in an effort to delay implementation of the rule. After a hearing earlier this week, the Court deinied motions for a temporary restraining order and preliminary injunction against the rule. NAMB said subsequently to members through its Facebook page: “It’s not over yet: we are filing an appeal as we speak, the appeal should be heard very quickly.” While many large e lenders have already announced new compensation plans that are largely based on lender-paid compensation, many were still hoping the rule would be delayed. One broker told RMD that in sitting down with several peers, they each had different interpretations of the same new plans. Source: Reverse Mortgage Daily

The Treasury Department will begin offloading its portfolio of $142 billion in agency-guaranteed mortgage-backed securities by selling up to $10 billion worth monthly, the agency said recently. "We're continuing to wind down the emergency programs that were put in place in 2008 and 2009 to help restore market stability, and the sale of these securities is consistent with that effort," said Mary J. Miller, assistant secretary for financial markets. "We will exit this investment at a gradual and orderly pace to maximize the recovery of taxpayer dollars and help protect the process of repair of the housing finance market." The Treasury acquired the securities in 2008 and 2009 to free up bank balance sheets as the market for agency-guaranteed MBS froze in the heat of the financial crisis. Congress approved the buyback of the securities through the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008. "The market for agency-guaranteed MBS has notably improved since the time Treasury purchased these securities in 2008 and 2009. Based on current market prices, Treasury expects to make a profit for taxpayers on this investment," the agency said. Source: Fortune.com

The single-family home delinquency rate fell to 3.78 percent last month, down from 3.82 percent in January and 4.20 percent in February 2010, Freddie Mac reports. However, the multifamily delinquency rate rose to 0.36 percent, up from 0.28 percent in January and 0.23 percent last February. Freddie Mac completed 23,017 loan modifications in January and February; also, last month's single-family, refinance-loan purchase and guarantee volume was $31.4 billion, or 81 percent of total home loan purchases and issuance, down from $32.4 billion or 83 percent of total loan volume in January. Source: LoanRateUpdate.com

House Republicans will introduce a series of eight bills to scale back Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's involvement in the housing market. These bills would expand the authority of the Federal Housing Finance Agency; subject employees of the entities to the federal pay scale; boost fees charged to borrowers over two years; prevent them from entering new lending markets; require Treasury approval of all new debt issuance; eliminate their affordable-housing goals; reduce their portfolios to $250 billion in five years; and ensure they are not exempt from rules that require lenders to retain a financial interest in their loans. Observers note that the GOP plan is similar to the Obama administration's but quickens the process of winding down the GSEs, a move that the administration worries could destabilize the housing market. Source: The Washington Post

The Community Mortgage Banking Project submitted an amicus brief in support of brokers who are trying to convince a U.S. district court in Washington to block the Federal Reserve's loan officer compensation rule which goes into effect late next week. "The final rule mistakes ordinary profit in lending transactions for unfair and deceptive practices," according to the brief CMBP filed in support of lawsuits filed by the National Association of Mortgage Brokers, and the National Association of Independent Housing Professionals. The Fed's rule "micro-manages" the way lenders pay their loan officers and restricts incentives based on profitability, the CMBP amicus brief says. (The trade group represents originators that fund loans in their own name. Its membership does not include brokers.) CMBP managing director Glen Corso noted that the Fed's rule was issued to prevent LOs from raising the cost of home loans to increase their compensation. "But it has ended up depriving loan officers of the ability to discount the rate to the consumer and absorb the cost of that discount by reducing their compensation," Corso said. Source: National Mortgage News

Good Faith Estimate forms do not always provide borrowers with a complete picture of what they will be paying in costs for their loan at closing, industry experts warn. The three-page Good Faith Estimate forms provide buyers and home owners who are getting a home loan a line-by-line disclosure of what their borrowing costs will be with the loan. As of Jan. 1, 2010, lenders now must provide the disclosure form to borrowers within three days of receiving a loan application. The forms were revamped over a year ago but the lack of clarity that still exists on the form can lead to delayed closings or even the loss of a locked-in rate, says Melissa Key, a spokeswoman for the Mortgage Bankers Association. The new Good Faith Estimate form “is better than it used to be, but it’s not up to snuff,” Kathleen Day, a spokeswoman for the Center for Responsible Lending, told The New York Times. “There are things that need to be unbundled and made clearer.” For example, the form fails to break out seller paid costs, such as transfer taxes. These costs, instead, are grouped into the “total estimated settlement charges” figure that falls at the bottom of the form. As such, borrowers at times are unknowingly looking at a larger amount than they’ll have to pay. The form also doesn’t account for down payments in the “total estimated settlement charges” column, leading borrowers to look at a smaller final number than they’ll need to actually pay, experts say. Some changes may be on the horizon to the forms, though. The new Consumer Financial Protections Bureau has said it will consider revising the good faith estimate forms to make all costs more transparent to the borrower. Source: New York Times

The Department of Housing and Urban Development late last week issued RESPA guidance to help lenders and settlement service providers fill out the 'Good Faith Estimate' in compliance with the Federal Reserve's loan officer compensation rule. The Fed rule changes the way originators are compensated. Going forward, a loan officer or broker can be paid a flat fee per loan or a set percentage of the principal amount of the loan. The Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act guidance includes one example where a broker receives a flat fee of $4,000 and the lender charges $500 for processing and administrative fees. In filling out the GFE, Block 1 should reflect a "charge of $4,500," HUD says. The guidance also covers cases where a lender has to pay a borrower to correct GFE tolerance violations by a broker. "The FRB's compensation rule will go into effect April 1, 2011 and absent other factors cannot be considered a basis for a changed circumstance to revise the GFE," the RESPA guidance says. Two trade groups are suing the Fed, hoping to block the rule. Source: National Mortgage News


Association To Sue Fed Over Comp

February 16, 2011

-Association To Sue Fed Over Comp
-Owner-Occupied Fraudulent 25% of The Time
-Homeownership Rate Down Again
-What About After The Snow?
-Getting Newsletters & Emails Out



The Calm After The Storm?

Who would have thought that this winter would subject much of the country to massive storm after storm just at a time when everyone was getting so confident about the recovery. We barely get through the Holiday shopping season unscathed despite early storms and then January turned out to be a white out from the Deep South to the Northeast. No one knows at this point how badly these storms will hurt our economy in the first quarter. Certainly, the employment report for January was definitively skewed. Tough to get good numbers when people can't get to the employment offices. We have had jobless claims going up and down from 25,000 to 50,000 per week. These numbers are normally volatile, but not that volatile. Think snow can't affect national numbers? As we mentioned last week, how can we have a report come in with 100,000 less jobs created, yet unemployment goes down sharply? It just does not add up.

Just file the weather under another category in which predictions are so difficult. Everyone thinks rates are going up this year. However, if we have more shocks overseas and natural disasters, nothing is etched in stone. Not that we are predicting these events. However, our advice is to always be prepared for the unexpected. If the weather gets nicer (isn't spring coming?) and the world quiets down, the economy could continue marching along with the recovery. Outside of the employment report, the vast majority of the economic releases have actually been positive in the past few weeks. We believe that is why the stock market has been strong and bond market weak despite the interruptions. Now if we could only get the real estate markets showing some spring-like strength.
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Rates were up significantly in the past week reflecting stronger economic news. Freddie Mac announced that for the week ending February 10, 30-year fixed rates averaged 5.05%, up from 4.81% the previous week. The average for 15-year fixed increased to 4.29%. Adjustables also were up with the average for one-year adjustables increasing to 3.35% and five-year adjustables rising to 3.92%. A year ago 30-year fixed rates were at 4.97%. Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac, "Long-term bond yields jumped on positive economic data reports, which placed upward pressure on rates of home loans this week. For all of 2010, nonfarm productivity rose 3.6 percent, the most since 2002, while January’s unemployment rate unexpectedly fell from 9.4 percent to 9.0 percent. Moreover, the service industry expanded in January at the fastest pace since August 2005. As a result, rates on a 30-year fixed-rate loans rose to the highest level since the last week in April 2010." Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.


Current Indices For Adjustable Rate Mortgages
Updated February 11, 2011


Index
February 10
January
6-month Treasury Security
0.18%
0.18%
1-year Treasury Security
0.29%
0.27%
3-year Treasury Security
1.19%
1.03%
5-year Treasury Security
2.18%
1.99%
10-year Treasury Security
3.58%
3.39%
12-month LIBOR
 
0.782% (Jan)
12-month MTA
 
0.312% (Jan)
11th District Cost of Funds
 
1.508% (Dec)
Prime Rate
 
3.250%
 
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 Today
Understanding Rates and The Secondary Markets

Wednesday, February 16
2 pm EST/11 am PST

Register Here
This webinar will be recorded for those who register and can't make it. 
 
What will happen to rates after Freddie and Fannie hike guarantee fees and/or disappear? And here comes another FHA rate hike. What has caused rates to rise so fast in the past four months? There is no issue that will affect your income more than the direction of rates, yet the average originator and real estate agent does not understand this complex topic.
It is your job to advise clients, not necessarily when to lock or float, but to explain what is happening in the markets and the risks associated with floating and locking. And the new comp plans will not pay you more for "guessing right."  
Join Dave Hershman & Guest Speaker Eric Holloman, CEO of RateLink, as they delve in to the basics of the secondary markets & update you on what is happening right now and the short-terms risks in the market place.
  
Only NewsletterPro gives you access to a complete marketing system and certification program for one low price. Don't miss our Certified Mortgage Advisor webinar this week. 
 
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Free White Paper:
Convert More Leads & Turn Them Into Referrals
Introducing a new article authored by Dave Hershman. OriginationPro is releasing the new OriginationPro CRM powered by LeadMaster, which will help you convert more leads through high level but simple technology.  Request the white paper and you will also be able to participate in a free demo of the new OriginationPro CRM. This system generates reports, schedules follow-up  and includes NewsletterPro Marketing.
  
  

Dave, I really like your newsletter program. The newsletters are the right balance of expert material but without being over the head of the reader. My problem is, I don't know what the best way to email the weekly newsletter is. Wanda from NJ

Thanks for the kind words on the newsletters. I have been writing them for 30 years. That has given us a lot of time to get the balance down to a science. There is no "one best" method for emailing the newsletters. If you have a database of 100, you could use Outlook or the email system you regularly use. However, you should have a database of more than that. Our sphere marketing webinar (in March) will show how to grow your database of your sphere from 300 to 3,000. And the larger it gets, the more technology you will need. If you are looking at merely a way to email, you could use a commercial email service like iContact. Our partner Velma has emailing capability and the added benefit of being able to mail our print newsletters and other material at a push of a button.

However, most need a CRM that can do much more. For example, schedule follow-up campaigns to prospects and real estate agents or other referral sources. Run reports as to where your business is coming from. We have done a search for the best partner in this regard and we have selected LeadMaster to power the OriginationPro CRM. LeadMaster not only gives us a fully-functional CRM that can be personalized for your business, but also has the capacity to send out the newsletters and other NewsletterPro marketing material. Here is link to a free whitepaper I have authored called, Converting More Leads and Leveraging Them For Referrals Click Here. On that link you will have the ability to request a demo of the system. Dave

 Dave

Ask The Expert is a feature of OriginationPro Update. If you would like to submit a question, you can email Dave at success@hershmangroup.com.

Special Offer: Want to send a "consumer version" of this real estate newsletter to your sphere? The NewsletterPro Marketing System has up-to-date articles on the real estate market, instead of recipes and handy-homeowner hints. And we are offering a special trial.  Click Here to order using our new $9.00 per month for 60Days special. Use Coupon Code "60DayOffer" when ordering.  

Breaking News: The National Association of Independent Housing Professionals said it will sue the Federal Reserve over its looming loan officer compensation rule, charging that the regulation is illegal and should be withdrawn because the agency "failed to demonstrate even a remote correlation between a loan originator's compensation and abusive, deceptive or unfair practices." NAIHP is managed by Marc Savitt, a West Virginia loan broker and a past president of the NAMB. Under the Fed's compensation rule, payments to an LO (be it a loan broker or otherwise) based on a loan's rate or other terms are prohibited. Also, the Fed is banning LOs from receiving compensation payments from both a borrower and a lender on the same deal. About a week ago the Small Business Administration officially asked the Federal Reserve to postpone the April 1 implementation date of its LO rule, saying the central bank did not provide "sufficient" or "proper" guidance for small lenders and loan brokers to comply with the new requirements. Savitt believes SBA's announcement is a proclamation that the Fed "did not follow the law." At the very least, his group is seeking a temporary restraining order against the Fed. But NAIHP may be facing long odds. The young trade group is less than a year old and operates on a shoestring budget. Savitt says he is receiving donations to fund the lawsuit from rank and file LOs, but admits that at least one larger financial backer has stepped away from the cause, at least for now. Source: NationalMortgageNews.com

Borrowers either never moved into or later vacated homes for at least 25 percent of U.S. home loans that were described as being for “owner occupied” properties when bundled into securities, according to 1010data. Misrepresentation of a loan's intended use as a residence accounts for about half of the falsely labeled loans, with the rest reflecting borrowers that subsequently moved out, according to a study by the New York-based firm, which sells software used to analyze data. The loans were packaged into bonds without government backing from 2004 through 2008. “We found a lot of loans where it was pretty clear the borrower didn’t occupy the property,” Jonah Green, the company’s director of analytics, said in a telephone interview. The figures don’t include a “significant” amount of debt for which the firm couldn’t conclusively confirm occupancy through the data used, he said. The report underscores why bond investors and insurers including Allstate Corp., Pacific Investment Management Co. and MBIA Inc. are seeking to force banks to repurchase tens of billions of dollars of soured debt. The study’s results, garnered from information including homeowner mailing addresses, also highlights how buyers of securities face challenges in evaluating opportunities in the $1.3 trillion market. Source: Bloomberg.com

The U.S. Census Bureau has reported that the homeownership rate in the second quarter of 2010 stands at 66.9 percent, and the number of vacant properties or homes for sale remained unchanged at 2.5 percent. The last time the rate was lower was in 1999, when the homeownership rate was 66.7 percent. According to RealtyTrac, banks have seized 816,000-plus homes through the September 2010 and are on pace to seize more than a million before the close of 2010. Approximately 18.8 million homes (14.4 percent of all houses and apartments) were vacant, according to the Census Bureau report. Without vacation homes, that rate would be 11 percent. According to the report, of the estimated 131 million housing units nationwide, the number of vacant homes has risen over the past few years from 16 million at the start of 2006, nearing the 19 million mark since the end of 2008. Nearly 2.5 percent of all primary residences were vacant and for sale and 10.3 percent of all year-round rental units were listed as vacant and for rent. The Census Bureau noted that foreclosures are counted as vacant homes for sale or rent, or as owner-occupied properties if lenders have not yet evicted the previous owners, as there were approximately 1.9 million empty properties on the market, down slightly from the mark of two million in the second quarter of 2010. Source: NationalMortgageProfessional.com

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau will take over two proposals related to the Truth in Lending Act that involve disclosures for closed-end home loans and home equity lines of credit. The CFPB, which assumes rulemaking authority in July, also will work on a proposal that changes the disclosures consumers must be given about their right to rescind a home loan. The Federal Reserve Board believes that delaying rule approval until the new regulator is officially in place would best serve the public interest. Source: AmericanBanker.com

Residential loan originators working for banks, thrifts, credit unions or Farm Credit System institutions must register with a Nationwide Mortgage Licensing System and Registry beginning this month. Under the Secure and Fair Enforcement for Mortgage Licensing Act, or SAFE Act, and the agencies' final rules, originators are required to register, obtain a unique identification number and maintain their status in the registry. The deadline to comply is July 29. Any employee who does not register will be prohibited from originating home loans. The rules provide an exception for originators who have written five or fewer loans in the last 12 months and have never registered. These employees do not have to register. Those who do must maintain their status and refile annually between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31 of each year. Originators do not have to renew if registration was completed six months before the end of the year. Source: HousingWire.com

RealtyTrac reports that more than 20,000 veterans, active-duty troops and reservists who took out special government-insured home loans lost their homes in 2010 -- the highest number in seven years. The rate of foreclosure filings last year among more than 160 Zip codes near military bases climbed 32 percent over 2008 versus a 2010 gain in foreclosures filings nationally of 23 percent over the same time span. Analysts say the housing crisis has hit military households hard due to such factors as transfers and the loss of civilian jobs left behind by reservists. Source: USAToday.com

The Treasury Department has revamped its short sale program by easing income restrictions and documentation requirements for homeowners facing foreclosure. The changes are effective Tuesday, Feb. 1. Changes made under Treasury's Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternative (HAFA) program make incentive payments more attractive for second lien holders and for borrowers completing a short sale, or deed in lieu transaction. Travis Olsen, chief operating officer at Loan Resolution Corp., expects the changes will lead to a big jump in HAFA enrollment. "A lot more people are going to qualify for the program," he said. "Elimination of the debt-to-income requirement along with the relaxed non-owner occupancy rule makes it easier for those who do qualify to get their short sale successfully closed." LRC is a Scottsdale, Ariz., vendor that specializes in short sales. Delinquent homeowners entering the program only have to prove that they used the house as their primary residence at some point in the last 12 months. Previously, it was the last 90 days. Home owners can qualify for the HAFA short sale program if they have moved across town and the property is vacant or rented to a non-borrower. Source: NationalMortgageNews.com

The Federal Housing Finance Agency formally announced a proposed rule that would limit Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan Banks from dealing in loans on properties encumbered by certain types of private transfer fee covenants and in certain related securities. The proposed rulemaking , first announced as a guidance this past August, would exclude private transfer fees paid to homeowner associations, condominiums, cooperatives and certain tax-exempt organizations that use private transfer fee proceeds to benefit the property. Fees that do not directly benefit the property would be barred. With limited exceptions, the rule would apply only prospectively to private transfer fee covenants created on or after the date of publication of the proposed rule. Transfer fees are contractual arrangements where an owner pays a fixed amount or a percentage of the sales price at the time of transferring the property. FHFA said such covenants are “adverse to the liquidity and stability of the housing finance market and to financial safety and soundness.” “The private transfer fee covenants appear to run counter to the important mission of the housing GSEs to increase liquidity, affordability and stability in the nation’s housing finance system,” said FHFA Acting Director Edward DeMarco when FHFA announced last year’s guidance. “Encumbering housing transactions with fees that may not be properly disclosed may impede the marketability and the valuation of properties and adversely affect the liquidity of securities backed by loans on those properties.” Source: MortgageBankersAssociation.org 


FHA Acts and Condo

January 19, 2011

-FHA Acts on Condos
-Red Flags Rule Is Effective
-Treasury Adjusts Short-Sale Program
-Lenders Continue To Underwrite With Microscope
-Originating Self-Employed & Analyzing Tax Returns
-Free LO Compensation Webinar Next Week
  

$100 Oil and What It Could Mean

In the past two weeks we presented a debate regarding the strength of the real estate market during this coming year. However, we left one major factor out of the equation. That is the price of oil. Late last month, oil crossed over the $90 per barrel mark and that means gas at the pumps also crossed over the $3.00 per gallon level. Certainly higher gas prices represent bad news for the consumer. But, what would the price of oil have to do with real estate? Higher oil prices right now are indicative of higher demand caused by a recovering economy. The same recovering economy that will help the real estate market. In this sense, a strong market for oil is good news for the fortunes of real estate. However, all the news is not good.

If oil indeed does approach $100 this year as many analysts are predicting and gas prices start approaching $3.50 per gallon, this will have a negative effect upon consumer spending. The consumer will have to spend more of their available dollars on gas and other energy-based expenditures such as utilities. This would give the consumer less money to spend elsewhere. The result? Higher energy prices may be a result a stronger economy, but they can also slow an economy down. Furthermore, higher energy prices contribute to higher inflation which can then cause higher rates, causing another drag upon economic growth. Oil prices can even affect the pattern of real estate growth, making long commutes more expensive and favoring real estate that is closer in to population centers. Are higher oil prices a certainty? Most analysts believe oil will continue to advance as long as the economic recovery does not stall. If they are right, we need a gradual, orderly advance so as not to adversely affect the pace of economic growth this year. The latest employment statistics, including a recent jump in first-time claims for unemployment, advances evidence of continued slow growth. Of course, jobs data can be extremely volatile from month-to-month.

Rates fell back again in the past week. Freddie Mac announced that for the week ending January 13, 30-year fixed rates averaged 4.71%, down from 4.77% the previous week. The average for 15-year fixed also fell to 4.08%. Adjustables were also down with the average for one-year adjustables falling slightly to 3.23% and five-year adjustables decreasing to 3.72%. A year ago 30-year fixed rates were at 5.06%. Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac, “Bond yields drifted lower following the release of the December employment, which was weaker than the market consensus forecast and implied that the labor market is still in a sluggish recovery. Fixed rates followed bond yields lower for a second consecutive week, bringing them to a four-week low. In its January 12th regional economic review, the Federal Reserve noted that activity in residential real estate and new home construction remained slow across all Districts over the last two months of 2010 due to concerns about the pace of economic recovery, especially in employment." Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.

Current Indices For Adjustable Rate Mortgages
Updated January 14, 2010


Index
January 13
December
6-month Treasury Security
0.18%
0.19%
1-year Treasury Security
0.26%
0.29%
3-year Treasury Security
1.00%
0.99%
5-year Treasury Security
1.93%
1.93%
10-year Treasury Security
3.34%
3.29%
12-month LIBOR
 
0.784% (Dec)
12-month MTA
 
0.318% (Dec)
11th District Cost of Funds
 
1.571% (Nov)
Prime Rate
 
3.250%
   
Today
 Originating Self-Employed Loans & Analyzing
Tax Returns   
  The new Financial Services Law states that, in order to be a "qualified loan," the income & financial resources relied upon to qualify the consumers are to be verified.
Yes, Liar Loans Are Gone. Yet, with the slower economy more of your clients are self-employed and have complex tax returns. Tighter lender guidelines and more self-employment? Are you going to be able to service this growing sector?  It is time to learn how to deal with full documentation loans with tax returns and even how to bring in prospects that have complex income situations. 
When you submit a file does the underwriter frequently change the income you proposed? Do you feel like a file with tax returns is going into a black hole and you don't know what will come back? Have you had a self-employed file get rejected that you thought was a good file? Are you comfortable talking the language of CPAs? This webinar will include a case study including sample tax returns and cover letter.

The Certified Mortgage Advisor Program brings you the tools you will need to compete. Now you can receive expert training from the CMA Program and expert marketing tools from the NewsletterPro Marketing System for one low price and no set up or travel costs.  
Register Here
  
Our 90 Day Trial is Only
$9 Per Month.
Use Coupon Code:
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Free Webinar Next Week 
Wednesday, January 26

Loan Officer Compensation Guidelines
 
Register Here
This webinar will provide an overview of the Federal Reserve Board’s LO Compensation rule, updates on regulatory developments, & responses to most pressing questions including:

• How about producing managers?  
• Owners of brokerage companies?  
• Using YSP to pay closing costs?    
• Can a company become a creditor? 
• Meeting the “anti-steering” test?     

The Certified Mortgage Advisor Program is hosting Jim Milano of Weiner Brodsky Sidman Kider PC who will give us an update on the implementation of these guidelines as they affect companies & loan originators, as well as answer questions. 

  
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and Twitter 
      

Lenders continue to nitpick every loan. I can't believe how many conditions are scrutinized to death. I don't even know what to say to borrowers anymore with regard to their chances of getting approved and I have twenty years experience. What can I do in order to make the process easier? Julia from California

I wish I could give you great news in this regard. As long as Fannie and Freddie are hammering lenders to buyback any loan in trouble, lenders will in-turn underwrite each file with a microscope to avoid buybacks. The good news is that at some point the cycle will turn when delinquency and foreclosure rates come down to acceptable levels. But that is not likely to happen this year. You can go back to basics and become an expert in all phases of origination. For example, you should know just as much as the underwriter. This is what the CMA program is all about and this week we have a session that is right on target: Originating Self-Employed and Analyzing Tax Returns with a Case Study. We no longer have "no-doc" loans and therefore, becoming an expert in this topic is essential. If you miss the program but register for the CMA program, you can get the recording. Register at www.webinars.originationpro.com using our special trial at only $9 per month which gives you access to NewsletterPro as well.  Dave

Ask The Expert is a feature of OriginationPro Update. If you would like to submit a question, you can email Dave at success@hershmangroup.com.

Special Offer:  Want to send a "consumer version" of this real estate newsletter to your sphere? The NewsletterPro Marketing System has up-to-date articles on the real estate market, instead of recipes and handy-homeowner hints. And we are offering a special trial. Click Here to order using our new $9.00 per month for 90 Days special. Use Coupon Code "90DayOffer" when ordering. Note that this special will be ending shortly.

Breaking News: FHA has issued ML 2011-03 which announces an extension of the temporary condominium policy guidance issued in ML 2009-46 A. The temporary guidance defined in ML 2009-46 A was effective for all Federal Housing Administration (FHA) case numbers assigned on or after December 7, 2009 through December 31, 2010. ML 2009-46 A is now extended for all FHA case numbers assigned through June 30, 2011, except that the “Spot Loan” approval process expired on February 1, 2010 and is not being extended. FHA reserves the right to modify, suspend or terminate the guidance contained in this document if analysis of condominium mortgage performance indicates that the insurance fund is at risk.

  • FHA Concentration Requirements As explained in ML 2009-46 A, the FHA concentration requirement defined in ML 2009-46 B is increased temporarily from 30 percent to 50 percent. The FHA concentration may be increased up to 100 percent if the project meets all of the basic condominium standards described in ML 2009-46 B, plus additional requirements listed in this letter.
  • Owner occupancy requirements: Vacant or tenant-occupied real estate owned (REOs) units, including properties that are bank owned, may be excluded from the calculation of the required owner-occupancy percentage (should be removed from both the numerator and denominator).
  • Presale Requirements: In the case of new construction, the pre-sale requirement defined in ML 2009-46 B will be reduced temporarily from 50 percent to 30 percent as long as certain conditions are met. Source: FHA

The Federal Trade Commission’s identity theft red flags rule that required businesses to meet identity theft consumer protection laws before the Dec. 31 deadline is now in full effect. And according to FTC estimations it affects about 11 million businesses, many of which may still be unaware of the law and its impact on their business. The red flags rule applies to organizations that use credit reports, extend credit or defer payments for goods and services in diverse markets ranging from loan brokers, landlords, health care, the automobile industry, jewelers, academia, home and yard cleaning services, and municipal utility services. It responds to the public outcry for help against the growing threat of identity theft. The U.S. Department of Justice reported that identity theft has surpassed the illegal drug trade as the No. 1 crime in the nation. An effort to curb that risk of continuous mounting identity theft related losses in the future is the reason why federal agencies updated the mandated "red flag rules" under the Fair and Accurate Credit Transaction Act of 2003. Source: National Mort. News

A recent decision by the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court is expected to have sweeping implications for the nation’s banking industry when it comes to how they’ve approved foreclosures and may even invalidate thousands of foreclosures across the country. The court, in affirming a lower court’s ruling, invalidated two foreclosure sales because the banks failed to prove the home owners actually owed the loans at the time of foreclosure. In the Massachusetts case, the court found that the banks — who were not the original mortgagee — failed to show that they held the loans at the time of foreclosure, which called into question whether the foreclosure sale was valid. Attorney Paul Collier III, who represents Antonio Ibanez, one of the home owners in the case, said the ruling stands to affect thousands of home loans across the country. "For home owners and foreclosures in general, it means that any foreclosure which was initiated by a securitized trust at a time when the trust had not obtained a loan assignment which gave it the lawful right to do so is void," Collier told the Associated Press. "Those home owners, like Mr. Ibanez, still own the property." Source: Associated Press

Builders started more houses last year than in 2009. But where are the buyers? 2010 was the "worst year ever" for new home sales, according to David Crowe, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders, which is holding its annual convention and trade show this week in Orlando. "Seven of the 11 months for which we have data set new all-time lows" for sales, Crowe told National Mortgage News. In November, the latest month for which Commerce Department figures are available, builders were selling homes at a rate of 290,000 units annualized on a seasonally adjusted basis. That's down 21% from 368,000 a year earlier. But actual sales in November totaled just 21,000 units. And for the first 11 months of 2010, builders sold 348,000 houses compared to 485,000 in 2008 and 374,000 in 2009. With those kinds of numbers, it's a head-scratcher as to why builders should erect even more houses. Indeed, single-family housing starts rose 6.9% in November to a 465,000 unit seasonally adjusted annual rate. At the same time, single-family permit activity, a harbinger of future construction, was up 3% to a rate of 416,000 units, the highest level since June. Despite these increases, the inventory of unsold but completed houses fell to 197,000 in November, the first time in 42 years this measure has dropped below the 200,000 level. Still, at the current slow sales pace, an 8.2 months' supply on finished product is sitting on builders' shelves. Source: National Mort. News

The Treasury Department took action in December eliminating some rules it said have held back short sales through the Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives program. HAFA was launched in April 2010 to provide an incentive to servicers and investors for pursuing short sales and deeds-in-lieu of foreclosure. The program was designed for homeowners who fell out of the Treasury's Home Affordable Modification Program and was touted as a new standard for short sales. But both HAFA and HAMP have struggled. The Treasury has spent only $4.3 million through HAFA, inducing roughly 661 short sales since the program launched, according to the Congressional Oversight Panel, the Troubled Asset Relief Program watchdog. With such low numbers, the Treasury has eliminated rules that have constricted eligibility for HAFA. Among them, servicers are no longer required to verify a borrower's financial information or determine if the borrower's total monthly housing payment exceeds a 31% debt-to-income ratio. Servicers still must obtain a signed hardship affidavit. "While this requirement has set the standard for affordability under HAMP, it is not as important for homeowners ready to transition out of their home," a Treasury official said. "Eliminating this requirement further streamlines the process for homeowners applying to the program." Larry Bird, an executive at BirdRock Enterprises and a vice president for the Foreclosure Response Team, a company that specializes in short sales, said removing the 31% DTI requirement should allow many more people to qualify for HAFA. Source: HousingWire

Only 8.34 percent of FHA-backed, single-family loans in November were 90 days or more past due. The agency revised its November seriously delinquent rate down from an original report of 8.7 percent. The rate for October was 8 percent, but the agency said the figure was skewed because two lenders that service 3 percent of FHA loans did not report on time. Not counting those lenders, the adjusted rate would be 8.21 percent. Source: American Banker  



 


Four Trends For Next Year

November 16, 2010

-Four Trends For Next Year
-Rural Housing Back in Business
-FHA Proposes Indemnification
-Pending Home Sales Retreat
-Commercial Originations Increase
-Business Planning 2011

Fun Time For Commodities

The Federal Reserve Board has indicated that they are going to print  more money and purchase assets in the form of Treasury securities. These actions are supposed to drive rates down and loosen up lending criteria. The objective is to get the economy moving strongly enough to lower the unemployment rate. Sounds simple, right? Well, the recent run-up in the price of oil, gold and other commodities indicates that the process is not simple. When it comes to the economy there are never clear-cut answers. On one side of the coin, these price gains can be seen as a good sign. After all, so many were worried about the chances of deflation and moving into a double dip recession. How much chance is there of deflation with the prices of raw materials skyrocketing? Not much, we would think.

On the other side of the coin, higher prices can slow the economy as well. For example, if the price of oil goes up, the consumer must dedicate more of their paycheck to transportation and utilities and this means they will spend less money on Holiday presents. Even lower rates are not a certainty as a result of the Fed purchasing Treasuries. If the economy is truly on the rebound, the Fed's actions may serve to keep rates lower for a period of time. Rates are already at historic lows anyway, so there is not a lot of room for downward movement. As a matter of fact, this could be the best case scenario. Rates stay lower and this facilitates the economic recovery. As long as the price of oil does not get out of hand. Hopefully, after the initial reaction, prices will calm down. Otherwise, fears of inflation may foil the best laid plans of the Fed.


Rates hit record lows again this week, however they did trend up as the week progressed and this movement was not reflected in Freddie Mac's averages. Freddie Mac announced that for the week ending November 11, 30-year fixed rates averaged 4.17%, down from 4.24% the previous week. The average for 15-year fixed fell to 3.57%. Adjustables were mixed with the average for one-year adjustables remaining at 3.26% and five-year adjustables falling to 3.25%. A year ago 30-year fixed rates were at 4.91%. Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac, "Following the Federal Reserve (Fed) November 3rd policy announcement that it plans to purchase up to $600 billion in government securities, Treasury bond yields initially fell and then gradually rose again. This allowed rates to fall to record levels this week. Despite historically low rates, however, the housing recovery continues to be slow owing in part to household job uncertainty and tight credit conditions." Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.

Current Indices For Adjustable Rate Mortgages
Updated November 12, 2010


Index
November 10
October
6-month Treasury Security
0.16%
0.18%
1-year Treasury Security
0.24%
0.23%
3-year Treasury Security
0.63%
0.57%
5-year Treasury Security
1.23%
1.18%
10-year Treasury Security
2.65%
2.54%
12-month LIBOR
 
0.769% Oct
12-month MTA
 
0.330% Oct
11th District Cost of Funds
 
1.663% Sept
Prime Rate
 
3.250%

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This year again was one of the most challenging in the history for the mortgage and real estate industries. We go into next year facing a new set of challenges with no tax credit, new compensation rules and the foreclosure crisis. Many have not survived the carnage of the past few years. Only those who plan for success in 2011 will be the real survivors. Those who plan for success will not only survive, they will lead during the next boom which will invariably come in this very cyclical industry.

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What trends should I be on the lookout for next year? It is hard to plan with so many changes taking place. Shelly from Maine

It is always hard to predict the future, especially with so many variables interacting at the present time. However, I would be thinking about these trends that are most likely to take place in the next 12-15 months...

  • For one, we will move from a refinance market to a purchase market. Eventually rates will rise and the purchase market should fill-in some of the slack. If rates stay low for a longer period, the changeover will be gradual and further into next year, but be prepared for this to happen to some degree in 2011.
  • I believe the broker segment of the industry will start its rebound. This segment will survive and it is hard to envision the segment getting any smaller. FHA approval is no longer an impediment. Many with independent spirits will grow tired of working for larger banks and as the market recovers, more banks will go into wholesale. There will be an opportunity for smaller lenders to grow to fill the "middle void" as well.
  • The credit pendulum will start to swing back. As investors see that home loans are worthy investments, there will be more entities willing to loosen up the credit reigns. This does not mean that we will move back to the sub-prime heyday and regulation will now keep this swing in check, however as buybacks and foreclosures wane, hopefully by the second half of the year, there will be movements on the credit front that will help the consumer.
  • We will move out of the vicious cycle of a down economy holding back real estate and real estate holding back the economy. We may not hit the "virtuous" cycle in 2011, but the foundation will be in place.
One again, this assumes that many variables will fall into place. But I am ready for a market turnaround. Aren't you? Dave

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Ask The Expert is a feature of OriginationPro Update. If you would like to submit a question, you can email Dave at success@hershmangroup.com.

Special Offer: Want to send a "consumer version" of this real estate newsletter to your sphere? The NewsletterPro Marketing System has up-to-date articles on the real estate market, instead of recipes and handy-homeowner hints. And we are offering a special trial.  Click Here to order using our new $9.00 per month for 90 Days special. Use Coupon Code "90DayOffer" when ordering.

Breaking News:  On Wednesday, November 3, 2010, the United State Department of Agriculture (USDA) provided an update on its Rural Development Single Family Housing Guaranteed Loan Program; Funding is now available for fiscal year 2011. Purchase type loans will be subject to a 3.5 percent upfront guarantee fee and refinance type loans will be subject to a one percent upfront guarantee fee. Prior to the supplemental bill, the fee was two percent for purchase type loans and 0.5 percent for refinance type loans. Source: Mortgage Bankers Association

The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development proposed new regulations to force certain lenders to indemnify or reimburse the Federal Housing Administration for insurance claims paid on loans that are found not to meet the agency's guidelines. In addition, HUD's proposed rule would require all new and existing lenders with the ability to insure loans on HUD's behalf to meet stricter performance standards to gain and maintain their approval status. For those lenders with special authority to insure loans on FHA's behalf, HUD seeks to force indemnification for "serious and material" violations of FHA origination requirements such that the loan never should have been endorsed by the mortgagee in the first place just as FHA would not have insured the loan on its own. Specifically, these lenders may be required to indemnify HUD, even if the violation did not cause the default, if they failed to:

  • Verify and analyze the creditworthiness, income and/or employment of the borrower;
  • Verify the source of assets brought by the borrower for payment of required downpayment and/or closing costs;
  • Address property deficiencies identified in the appraisal affecting the health and safety of the occupants or structural integrity of the property;
  • Ensure that the appraisal satisfies FHA requirements. Source: NM news

On May 20, 2010, FHA revised its lender approval policy to eliminate the approval of Loan Correspondents effective December 31, 2010. On January 1, 2011, Loan Correspondents will no longer have access to HUD’s secure system, the FHA Connection. Loan Correspondents will be permitted to continue their participation in FHA programs by establishing a sponsorship relationship with an FHA-approved lender. Loan Correspondents that wish to continue participating in FHA programs after December 31, 2010, must be registered as Sponsored Originators in the FHA Connection by a sponsoring lender. Lender may register a Sponsored Originator via the new Sponsored Originator Maintenance screen in the FHA Connection. It is recommended that Loan Correspondents be registered prior to January 1, 2011, as only registered Sponsored Originators will be permitted to participate in the origination of FHA loans. Source: FHA

The election outcome will almost certainly have an impact on the real estate industry and the issues that most seriously affect it. Here are two of the initial results. Ten of the 12 state attorneys general on the executive committee heading the foreclosure probe lost their re-election bids and won’t be returning to office. Ohio’s Richard Cordray, one of the most outspoken AGs, says the change of watch won’t matter very much. “The issue is still there. The elections don’t change that. It’s going to need to be addressed, from the industry’s standpoint,” he said. “The 50-state investigation will continue to go forward.” Also, in Florida, voters rejected a proposal to change the state’s constitution to allow voters to decide changes to local master plans. The proposal was rejected by two-thirds of voters. Source: The Wall Street Journal

Pending home sales retreated after two monthly gains, signaling an uneven recovery entering 2011 with some near-term disruptions from the foreclosure moratorium, according to the Source: National Association of Realtors®. The Pending Home Sales Index, slipped 1.8 percent to 80.9 based on contracts signed in September from an upwardly revised 82.4 in August. However, the index remains 24.9 percent below a surge to 107.8 in September 2009 when first-time buyers were jumping into the market to take advantage of the initial deadline for the tax credit last November. The data reflects contracts and not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months. “Existing-home sales have shown some improvement but the foreclosure moratorium is likely to cause some disruption and contribute to an uneven sales performance in the months ahead,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. “Nonetheless, there appears to be a pent-up demand that eventually will be unleashed as banks resolve their issues with foreclosures and the labor market improves. However, tight credit and appraisals coming in below a negotiated price continue to constrain the market.” Existing-home sales are forecast to gradually rise, with some occasional dips along the way. “For 2011 we should see more than 5.1 million existing-home sales, up from about 4.8 million this year. Housing starts are expected to rise to 716,000 in 2011 from 598,000 this year,” Yun said. “We’ve added 30 million people to the U.S. population over the past 10 years, but sales are where they were in 2000, so there appears to be a sizable pent-up demand that could come to the market once the economy gathers momentum.” Source: National Association of Realtors®

Commercial and multifamily loan originations are at their highest level in nearly two years -- driven by sequential growth in the health care and multifamily sectors. However, the industrial sector was the biggest driver of gains, according to new figures compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association. The trade group's origination index value for the third quarter was 70, compared with 61 in the second quarter and 53 for the third quarter 2009. The last time the index was higher was in the third quarter 2008, when it was at 116. When compared with the second quarter, loans on health care properties saw an 84% increase in loan volume, followed by multifamily properties at 50%. At the other end of the scale, there was a 54% decrease in loans for hotel properties. But the highest index value by sector in the third quarter was for industrial properties at 145, up 129% over the third quarter 2009. This was followed by multifamily properties at 101 and health care properties at 99. Source: NM News

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac reform could be pushed back two years or more due to anticipated gridlock in Congress as the political parties clash over Washington's role in the entities. The White House supports explicit government backing to prevent economic downturns from derailing the secondary market, but some Republicans would rather see the housing-finance system privatized. There is speculation that the GOP will seek aggressive change once the markets improve instead of pursuing modest reform in the short term. Source: The Wall Street Journal


Mortgage News Update

October 5, 2010

-High Cost Limits Extended
-Extension For National Flood Insurance as Well
-Ray of Hope on FHA Seller Concessions
-Warehouse Lending Coming Back
-Don't Have Time or Money to Market?

When Will They Hire?

Everyone can talk all they want about influences on the economy from foreclosures to the price of oil, but as we have said several times, it is all about jobs. Lowering the jobless rate would take the creation of a few hundred thousand jobs per month. That is what will give consumers confidence to spend on big-ticket items such as homes. Unfortunately, though the economy is not bleeding jobs anymore, it is still not creating jobs at the pace that would cause confidence to rise. We find that interesting because corporate profits are strong and so are the cash coffers of companies. It seems every Monday, more corporate buyouts are announced.

We should ask, why can companies afford to purchase other companies for billions of dollars, but they can't afford to hire? From the Washington Post: Corporate profits are soaring. Companies are sitting on billions of dollars of cash. And still, they've yet to amp up hiring or make major investments -- the missing ingredients for a strong economic recovery. Corporations need to be confident to hire more employees. Well, they appear to be confident enough to purchase other companies. Seems like corporate America is holding back and the consumer is the one suffering for it. A real test comes with the Holiday Season approaching. If consumers are now purchasing again, will there be enough sales and customer service personnel to take their money? If the stock market is any indication, the answer is yes with the strongest September gains in seven decades. This week's employment numbers will be important--but as we said, the real test will come with the Holidays. We are interested in seeing if companies will not only hire help, but will they be temporary workers or permanent employees.


Rates moved lower in the past week. Freddie Mac announced that for the week ending September 30, 30-year fixed rates averaged 4.32%, down from 4.37% the previous week. The average for 15-year fixed fell to 3.75%. Adjustables were stable with the average for one-year adjustables rising slightly to 3.48% and five-year adjustables falling slightly to 3.52%. A year ago 30-year fixed rates were at 4.94%. Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac, "Confidence in the state of the economy fell among consumers and businesses, which led to a decline in long-term bond yields and brought rates to record lows this week. The September Consumer Confidence Index by the Conference Board fell to the lowest level since February of this year. Consequently, rates for the 15-year fixed loans and the 5-year hybrid ARM reached new all-time lows and rates for 30-year fixed loans tied its record set just four weeks ago. Homeowners have regained $1.0 trillion in home equity as of the second quarter of 2010 after losing more than $7.5 trillion over the three-year period ending in the first quarter of 2009, the Federal Reserve Board reported. This, in part, strengthened household balance sheets and reduced serious delinquencies on home loans." Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.

Current Indices For Adjustable Rate Mortgages
Updated October 1, 2010


Index
Sept. 30
August
6-month Treasury Security
0.20%
0.19%
1-year Treasury Security
0.25%
0.26%
3-year Treasury Security
0.77%
0.78%
5-year Treasury Security
1.48%
1.47%
10-year Treasury Security
2.77%
2.70%
12-month LIBOR
 
0.949% Aug
12-month MTA
 
0.353% Aug
11th District Cost of Funds
 
1.753% July
Prime Rate
 
3.250%

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I have been busy closing refis for the past few months. That is the good news. However, I have not had time to do any marketing and I am afraid that as soon as rates rise, my business will disappear. I just don't have time. What do you suggest? Ed from New York

Your situation is being played out again and again across America. When rates rise -- and they will I just don't know when -- it will be too late to start your marketing campaigns. To be successful, marketing must be consistent and that means every week and the year. Here is the good news--my definition marketing should not be confused with traditional advertising. I believe your sphere should be the target of your marketing and you can do this with a limited amount of money, time and energy. The key is setting up a system and sticking with it. For example, it takes 15 minutes to set our electronic newsletter system. From there you can be sending out a newsletter every week to your sphere. Of course, you have to have the database. Even if you have 50 addresses and you add 10 per week--you will have over 500 in a year and over 5,000 in ten years. The key is doing a little bit every day. Can you afford 15 minutes per day? Because that is all it takes to grow your sphere. My complimentary webinar, Maximum Newsletter Marketing, is today, Wednesday, October 6. Register and if you can't make it, we will send a recording. Register Here: https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/614628859

Dave

Ask The Expert is a feature of OriginationPro Update. If you would like to submit a question, you can email Dave at success@hershmangroup.com.

Special Offer: Want to send a "consumer version" of this real estate newsletter to your sphere? The NewsletterPro Marketing System has up-to-date articles on the real estate market, instead of recipes and handy-homeowner hints. And we are offering a special trial.  Click Here to order using our new $9.00 per month for 90 Days special. Use Coupon Code "90DayOffer" when ordering.

Breaking News:  Congress voted on Sept. 29 to extend higher loan limits for government-insured home loans, hopefully keeping borrowing costs down and adding some stability to the shaky housing sector. When the legislation is signed into law by President Obama, the cap would hold at $729,750 for single-family loans in more expensive areas until October of next year. Currently, it is set to drop back down to $625,500 at the beginning of 2011 and could cause the housing market to hit another slump if not extended. Source: Reuters

Lenders were given a ray of hope that the Federal Housing Administration may come down on the side of flexibility when it finally issues a final rule regarding seller concessions. The FHA has proposed reducing the maximum share of a buyer's closing costs that sellers can pay, from 6% to 3%. It's no secret that lenders are not thrilled with the cap, something that has not escaped the watchful eye of Vicki Bott, deputy assistant secretary for single-family housing at the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Speaking at the New England Mortgage Bankers Conference in Providence, R.I., she said HUD received more than a thousand comment letters on various proposals the FHA has made to shore up its mutual mortgage insurance fund. But Bott told the conference, "the vast majority" have been about the plan to halve seller concessions, presumably against it. But Bott, who is responsible for the direction and management of all the FHA's single-family insurance products, said she expects the agency to take a "balanced approach" with the final rule, which should be posted "toward the end of the year." Although loans with a high percentage of seller concessions are 1.3 to 1.5 times more likely to go into default, she said the FHA realizes "there are a lot of things to consider." One, she said, is that the impact of the proposal has a far greater impact on $50,000 loans than it does on $500,000 loans. Another is that a major part of a buyer's closing costs stems from one item, title insurance. Ultimately, the HUD official told the conference, the agency must balance its need to maintain the long-term viability of the insurance fund with its core mission of serving the underserved. "Any decision we make," she said, "someone loves it, someone hates it." Source: NM News

The Government Accountability Office said economic and market conditions led to declines in the Federal Housing Administration's mutual mortgage insurance fund "to a level below the statutory minimum" of 2%. Testifying before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, Mathew Scire, director of the GAO financial markets and community investment division said the ratio slipped to 0.51% for fiscal 2009. The GAO also said the number of insurance claims and the losses associated with the claims exceeded projections reducing the fund's economic value. Meanwhile, higher demand for FHA-insured loans increased the agency's insurance-in-force. FHA has outlined a number of steps to help improve the fund, including adjustments to insurance premiums and underwriting policies. But legislative requirements provide limited direction to the agency, according to the GAO. The FHA plans to closely monitor the performance of agency-insured home loans written in 2009, which the GAO expects will "have a major influence on the fund's financial condition because of its large size, but it is too early to tell whether it will perform to FHA's expectations." Source: HousingWire

Congress has approved legislation that would extend the National Flood Insurance Program through September 30, 2011. The bill ends--for this year--a frustrating period for flood insurance customers and advocates. Without the bill, the NFIP would have expired on Sept. 30, which also would have marked the fourth time this year that it lapsed. Congress approved retroactive short-term extensions following each lapse. The Mortgage Bankers Association and other industry trade groups have repeatedly called for a longer-term extension or a permanent solution. MBA Chairman Robert Story Jr., CMB praised the House action but called on Congress to develop a longer-term solution. "We need to have a flood insurance program in place. Without it, it is doubtful that home and building owners in areas of the country prone to flooding would be able to purchase insurance to protect their property against flood risk,” Story said. “It is critical that we have certainty for lenders and borrowers who rely on this program to insure residential and commercial properties. We look forward to working with policymakers over the next year on a longer term extension." Disruption of the NFIP has had significant implications for the housing and commercial property industries. In a June letter to Congress, MBA and other trade groups noted that 5.5 million taxpayers depend on the NFIP as their main source of protection against flooding, the most common natural disaster in the United States. Without flood insurance, no federally related home loans can be made in nearly 20,000 communities nationwide. Source: MBA

A year ago the future looked somewhat bleak for lending firms that were the property of homebuilders: new housing starts continued to crumble and their originations were in the tank, big time. But that was 12 months ago. And although no one anticipates homebuilders such as NVR, Pulte Homes and Ryland Homes are poised for a significant boom anytime soon, it appears their lending divisions have turned the corner. According to origination figures compiled by NM News, and the Quarterly Data Report, four out of the five homebuilder-owned lenders that rank among the top 60 (nationwide) showed a sizeable increase in originations during the second quarter. The gains come at a time when most top funders saw loan volumes decline in the second quarter, compared to the same period a year ago. Source: NM News

Sales of multifamily housing is picking up nationwide, commercial practitioners say. Buyers believe the sector is a sound bet because current prices are below construction costs in many cases and rental business is improving. Plus, there has been little additional development in the past couple of years and some industry analysts believe that shortly there will be a shortage in some markets. Financing for apartment buildings is at a 50-year low, with seven- to 10-year loans available for as little as 4 percent. The sector could face some pain. Yields are about 5 percent while a year ago investors were getting close to 6 percent with about a quarter of the transactions involving distressed sellers. Source: The Wall Street Journal

Warehouse lending rose in the second quarter, with Bank of America -- the largest player in the niche -- reporting $15 billion in commitment volume as of June 30. A mini-refinance boom deserves some of the credit for improving conditions; and with originations set to hit nearly $1.9 trillion this year, demand for warehouse lines is up. Experts also say the entry of MetLife Bank bodes well for the sector. Source: American Banker


The Fed-Ho Hum

September 21, 2010

-Get Ready For New FHA Reverse Mortgage
-Confused Over New Compensation Rules?
-Freddie Paints Bleak Picture
-Government Weighs in on Fannie/Freddie Future
-Commercial Market Rebounding
-One CEO: No Real Estate Double Dip 

Here Comes The Fed--Ho Hum

It used to be that a meeting of the Federal Reserve Board was accompanied by great anticipation and trepidation. This is no longer the case. As a matter of fact, there have been no previous time periods in the past forty years when the Fed has been so inactive when it comes to changing short-term rates. It has been just about two years since the last significant adjustment. Not that the Fed has been idle. They have been very busy purchasing bonds and mortgage securities. And more of these activities may follow, though the recent reports on retail sales and employment, while not strong, may keep the Fed inactive in this regard for right now. Even the members of the Fed don't seem to agree on the correct course of action. From a recent blurb in The Wall Street Journal: Federal Reserve officials differ on the question of how weak the economic outlook should get before they move to take major steps to boost growth.

Don't get us wrong, the markets will still be anticipating the Fed meeting this week. However, the focus is more likely to be on the wording of the announcement at the conclusion of the meeting. The Fed has nowhere to go with regard to rates. The markets would love to see some statement that is positive. More than likely, the Fed will play down the chances of a double dip while acknowledging that the present state of the economy, especially real estate, is slower than anticipated. This is old news. So the question is, will the wording contain some sort of surprise in this regard? Any surprises could definitely increase volatility in the markets.



Rates were stable at historic lows again in the past week. Freddie Mac announced that for the week ending September 16, 30-year fixed rates averaged 4.37%, up slightly from 4.35% the previous week. The average for 15-year fixed fell slightly to 3.82%. Adjustables were also down slightly with the average for one-year adjustables easing to 3.40% and five-year adjustables falling slightly to 3.55%. A year ago 30-year fixed rates were at 5.04%. Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac, "Rates on 30-year fixed loans have remained below 5 percent for the last 19 weeks giving people ample opportunity to refi their existing loans. As a result, homeowners reduced their financial obligations relative to disposable personal income during the second quarter of 2010 to the lowest share in almost eight years, according to the Federal Reserve. Currently, four out of five applications for home loans are for refinancing existing loans, based on figures released by the Mortgage Bankers Association of America." Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.

Current Indices For Adjustable Rate Mortgages
Updated September 17, 2010


Index
September 16
August
6-month Treasury Security
0.20%
0.19%
1-year Treasury Security
0.25%
0.26%
3-year Treasury Security
0.77%
0.78%
5-year Treasury Security
1.48%
1.47%
10-year Treasury Security
2.77%
2.70%
12-month LIBOR
 
0.949% Aug
12-month MTA
 
0.353% Aug
11th District Cost of Funds
 
1.753% July
Prime Rate
 
3.250%

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I am confused as to how to pay my loan officers after the new rules recently released. Where can I get help? Manager from North Carolina

If you are confused, you are not alone. Most did not expect the compensation standards to be released so quickly, however, these rules were proposed by the Fed before the law passed this summer. In addition, the verbiage of these rules was pretty much integrated into the law. Though the rules have been "pre-published," and they are effective in six months, we can expect a whole lot of questions that still need to be answered. Jim Milano of WBSK was our guest speaker for our Financial Services Law Summary last week. Jim said that his firm is expecting significant "back and forth" between his firm and the Fed during the next few months and he promises to keep us up on what they find out. Our members will get instant access to information as soon as we have it. If you want to obtain a recording of this webinar, as well as be on hand for the information that will be released, all you need to do is sign up for a "$9/mo 90-day Trial" of our Newsletter and Certified Mortgage Advisor Program. You will get access to all of our webinars, live and recorded, as well as our full marketing system. Just go to www.webinars.originationpro.com and enter the coupon code "90DayOffer" when you order. Dave

Ask The Expert is a feature of OriginationPro Update. If you would like to submit a question, you can email Dave at success@hershmangroup.com.

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Breaking News: Lenders are bracing for sweeping changes that are coming to the FHA's reverse program, which could lead to reduced loan volumes, but also a safer product. Later this month, the Department of Housing and Urban Development plans to introduce a new "low cost" FHA-insured home equity conversion mortgage product. This new option will make HECMs more attractive to senior citizens who need to tap home equity to cover daily living and health care costs. The FHA also is moving ahead addressing technical defaults on HECMs which occur when seniors get behind in paying their property taxes and homeowners insurance. Late payments are a lingering problem and a recent HUD inspector general audit found that four major HECM servicers have paid out $35 million to cover taxes and insurance payments while waiting for the FHA to issue new guidance. "If HUD does not take action, additional payments will occur in the next 12 months," according to the IG audit report. HUD is preparing to issue a letter in the next 30 days that will provide "formal and clear" guidance on curing these defaults, according to HUD deputy assistant secretary Vicki Bott. In some cases, servicers and counselors will have to seek the support of local government officials and family members to help them get back on track. The FHA also wants to adopt policies that prevent seniors from getting into new HECM loans if they do not have the long-term resources to make T&I payments. These policies will be issued as part of a proposed rule for public comment. The standard HECM with a 2% upfront is generally designed to help borrowers pay off their existing loan or in some cases purchase a new home. The new "HECM Saver" is expected to have a de minimus upfront premium, but the typical borrower will receive 10% to 18% less in available funds than the standard HECM, according to the National Reverse Mort. Lenders Association. "The upfront insurance premium has been a deterrent to some prospective borrowers, particularly those needing less than the full amount available under the traditional HECM Standard program," said NRMLA president Peter Bell. "This new variation—the HECM Saver—presents a sensitive response to their needs," he added. Source: NM News

Freddie Mac expects 4 million new and existing home sales in the third quarter, a possible 20.7% decline from last year and 23% drop from the previous quarter. In its September economic outlook, Freddie said recent reports of plummeting home sales and near record-high delinquencies has shaken confidence in the "fragile" housing recovery. After the homebuyer tax credit expired in April, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported existing home sales fell 27% in July, and new home sales have fallen to the lowest point since 1963. The news will further weigh on the market. JPMorgan Chase analysts lowered expectations of housing recovery in the next four years. Jon Daurio, chief executive at the distressed loan purchaser Kondaur Capital, warned that home prices could fall another 20% as well. "The main issue for the housing market outlook is how much of the recent weakness in home sales can be explained by transactions that were pulled forward by the credit – that is, 'borrowed' from sales in future months – versus signs that a more fundamental deterioration may be underway," according to Freddie Mac. Source: HousingWire

Brett White, CEO of CB Richard Ellis, says the commercial real estate industry is rebounding in the U.S. He sees multi-family leading the way, followed by office and retail with the industrial recovery trailing. “We also see an incredible demand for very-high-quality, well-leased assets of all classes. So many investors lost so much money in real estate the last three years, yet they still have a lot of money to invest, so they are now investing in the safest possible properties. Prices on those assets are in some cases close to 2007 peaks now,” White said. He said small investors who can tolerate some risk should consider Class B office or industrial products in suburban locations or hotels. “I have heard about some hotel deals recently that are just unbelievable,” he said. Source: Los Angeles Times

The CEO of global real estate services firm Jones Lang LaSalle pooh-poohs the notion of another real estate downturn. "We don't expect a double dip," CEO Colin Dyer told reporters in Asia on Friday. "Our sense is that the corporate clients that we deal with are liquid, they have amassed a lot of money and they are looking for ways to invest.” Jones Lang LaSalle manages about $40 billion of real estate investments for its institutional clients globally. More than two-thirds of the clients are in the U.S. and Europe, while 25 percent are in Asia. Source: Reuters News

The Treasury's point man on GSE reform said recently that the Obama White House will not propose any changes to government guarantees backing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac MBS for fear of hurting the liquidity and functionality of the U.S. home loan market. In prepared testimony on Capitol Hill, Michael Barr, assistant secretary for financial institutions, said the administration is "committed to ensuring that the GSEs have sufficient capital to perform under any guarantees issued now or in the future and the ability to meet any debt obligations." Barr noted that Fannie, Freddie, and the Ginnie Mae today play an "outsized role" in housing finance, but said, "This situation is neither sustainable nor desirable." Early next year, the White House will unveil its blueprint on the future of the nation's residential finance system with many industry executives believing there will be some type of government guarantee involved — but are unsure what form it might take. One trade group official told NM News that, "Our members are capitalists and believe in free markets," but jokingly added: "But not when it comes to home loans. Everyone agrees some government guarantees are needed." Barr did offer some glimmer of hope for Fannie and Freddie, noting that the GSEs' new book of business is excellent, accounting for less than 1% of post conservatorship credit losses. Source: NM News
Condo and apartment developers in cities nationwide are thinking small in an effort to keep prices low and satisfy Gen Y buyers who are more concerned about location than they are about spacious accommodations. The more expensive a city, the smaller the new developments. In San Francisco, there are a number of complexes where units range from 250 to 350 square feet. In Vancouver, British Columbia, there is a “micro-loft” building where apartments are 270 square feet. “For Gen Y, the home is a place to live out of, not to live in,” says John McIlwain, a senior fellow for housing at The Urban Land Institute in Washington D.C. “They don’t think of this as a sacrifice. It’s just their lifestyle.” Source: MSNBC.com

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